Ecological suitability modeling for anthrax in the Kruger National Park, South Africa

The spores of the soil-borne bacterium, Bacillus anthracis, which causes anthrax are highly resistant to adverse environmental conditions. Under ideal conditions, anthrax spores can survive for many years in the soil. Anthrax is known to be endemic in the northern part of Kruger National Park (KNP)...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	PloS one Vol. 13; no. 1; p. e0191704
Main Authors:	Steenkamp, Pieter Johan, van Heerden, Henriette, van Schalkwyk, Ockert Louis
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	United States Public Library of Science 01-01-2018 Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Subjects:	Anthrax Anthrax - diagnosis Anthrax - epidemiology Bacillus anthracis - isolation & purification Biology and Life Sciences Carcasses Datasets Disease Disease Outbreaks Earth Sciences Ecology and Environmental Sciences Ecosystem Entropy Environmental conditions Epidemics Epidemiology Geographical distribution Herbivores Humans Infections Maximum entropy Medicine and Health Sciences Modelling National parks Normalized difference vegetative index Soil bacteria Soil microorganisms Soils South Africa - epidemiology Spores Surveillance Tropical diseases Vegetation Vegetation index South Africa
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Summary:	The spores of the soil-borne bacterium, Bacillus anthracis, which causes anthrax are highly resistant to adverse environmental conditions. Under ideal conditions, anthrax spores can survive for many years in the soil. Anthrax is known to be endemic in the northern part of Kruger National Park (KNP) in South Africa (SA), with occasional epidemics spreading southward. The aim of this study was to identify and map areas that are ecologically suitable for the harboring of B. anthracis spores within the KNP. Anthrax surveillance data and selected environmental variables were used as inputs to the maximum entropy (Maxent) species distribution modeling method. Anthrax positive carcasses from 1988-2011 in KNP (n = 597) and a total of 40 environmental variables were used to predict and evaluate their relative contribution to suitability for anthrax occurrence in KNP. The environmental variables that contributed the most to the occurrence of anthrax were soil type, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and precipitation. Apart from the endemic Pafuri region, several other areas within KNP were classified as ecologically suitable. The outputs of this study could guide future surveillance efforts to focus on predicted suitable areas for anthrax, since the KNP currently uses passive surveillance to detect anthrax outbreaks.
Bibliography:	ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. Current address: Office of the State Veterinarian, Skukuza, South Africa
ISSN:	1932-6203 1932-6203
DOI:	10.1371/journal.pone.0191704