Temperature-related mortality estimates after accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollution in an urban area

To propose a new method for including the cumulative mid-term effects of air pollution in the traditional Poisson regression model and compare the temperature-related mortality risk estimates, before and after including air pollution data. The analysis comprised a total of 56,920 residents aged 65 y...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Environmental health Vol. 15; no. 1; p. 73
Main Authors:	Stoji, Svetlana Stanisi, Stanisi, Nemanja, Stoji, Andreja
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	England BioMed Central Ltd 11-07-2016 BioMed Central
Subjects:	Aged Air Pollutants - analysis Air pollution Air Pollution - analysis Atmospheric temperature Cardiovascular Diseases - mortality Cities - epidemiology Environmental health Female Forecasts and trends Health aspects Humans Male Mortality Nitrogen Dioxide - analysis Particulate Matter - analysis Respiratory Tract Diseases - mortality Serbia - epidemiology Sulfur Dioxide - analysis Temperature Developing countries Environmental exposure Air pollution Temperature Mortality
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Summary:	To propose a new method for including the cumulative mid-term effects of air pollution in the traditional Poisson regression model and compare the temperature-related mortality risk estimates, before and after including air pollution data. The analysis comprised a total of 56,920 residents aged 65 years or older who died from circulatory and respiratory diseases in Belgrade, Serbia, and daily mean PM10, NO2, SO2 and soot concentrations obtained for the period 2009-2014. After accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollutants, the risk associated with cold temperatures was significantly lower and the overall temperature-attributable risk decreased from 8.80 to 3.00 %. Furthermore, the optimum range of temperature, within which no excess temperature-related mortality is expected to occur, was very broad, between -5 and 21 °C, which differs from the previous findings that most of the attributable deaths were associated with mild temperatures. These results suggest that, in polluted areas of developing countries, most of the mortality risk, previously attributed to cold temperatures, can be explained by the mid-term effects of air pollution. The results also showed that the estimated relative importance of PM10 was the smallest of four examined pollutant species, and thus, including PM10 data only is clearly not the most effective way to control for the effects of air pollution.
Bibliography:	ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23
ISSN:	1476-069X 1476-069X
DOI:	10.1186/s12940-016-0164-6