Simulating influenza epidemics with waning vaccine immunity
Observational studies indicate that vaccine-induced immunity can decline over time. However, few researchers have incorporated this kind of waning effect into their virus spread models. In this study, we simulate an influenza epidemic that considers the effects of waning immunity by fitting epidemio...
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| Published in: | Medicine (Baltimore) Vol. 100; no. 36; p. e27169 |
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| Main Authors: | , |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
United States
Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
10-09-2021
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Get full text |
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| Summary: | Observational studies indicate that vaccine-induced immunity can decline over time. However, few researchers have incorporated this kind of waning effect into their virus spread models. In this study, we simulate an influenza epidemic that considers the effects of waning immunity by fitting epidemiological models to CDC secondary historical data aggregated on a weekly basis, and derive the transmission rates at which susceptible individuals become infected over the course of the influenza season. Using a system of differential equations, we define four groups of individuals in a population: susceptible, vaccinated, infected, and recovered. We show that a larger number of initially infected individuals might not only bring the influenza season to an end sooner but also reduce the epidemic size. Moreover, any influenza virus that entails a faster recovery rate does not necessarily lead to a smaller epidemic size. We illustrate how simulation helps in understanding the effects of influenza epidemiological model in the presence of waning influenza vaccine immunity. |
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| Bibliography: | ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 |
| ISSN: | 0025-7974 1536-5964 |
| DOI: | 10.1097/MD.0000000000027169 |