Impact assessment of soybean yield and water productivity in Brazil due to climate change

Impact assessment of soybean yield and water productivity in Brazil due to climate change

•We calibrated the DSSAT/CROPGRO for several soybean maturity groups.•Crop model showed good performance under different tropical conditions.•Water productivity increase can ensure the future growth of soybean yield.•Mean soybean yields increase likely in the future climate due to CO2 increase. In t...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:European journal of agronomy Vol. 129; p. 126329
Main Authors: Figueiredo Moura da Silva, Evandro Henrique, Silva Antolin, Luis Alberto, Zanon, Alencar Junior, Soares Andrade, Aderson, Antunes de Souza, Henrique, dos Santos Carvalho, Kassio, Aparecido Vieira, Nilson, Marin, Fabio Ricardo
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier B.V 01-09-2021
Subjects:
Climate change projections
Crop modeling
DSSAT
Food security
Water use
Crop modeling
Water use
DSSAT
Climate change projections
Food security
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Summary:•We calibrated the DSSAT/CROPGRO for several soybean maturity groups.•Crop model showed good performance under different tropical conditions.•Water productivity increase can ensure the future growth of soybean yield.•Mean soybean yields increase likely in the future climate due to CO2 increase. In the next decades, the population is expected to rise by more than two billion people, and the projections of climate change have been considered as one of the greatest future challenges for world food security. Soybean represents more than 60 % of all plant protein produced in the world, and Brazil is the largest world exporter and the second-largest producer. In this paper, we simulated soybean yields for 16 strategically selected agroclimatic zones (CZs) to represent Brazilian production. Experiments conducted throughout the country were used to calibrate the CROPGRO-Soybean model for Brazilian conditions, for the main maturity groups used in Brazil, to simulate current and 40 future climate scenarios, provided by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) for 2050 in the both 4.5 and 8.5 representative concentration pathways (RCP). We found soybean yield varying by +1 to +32 % across 16 CZs in the average scenario of future climate when compared to the current yields. Yet, we found an increase of about 5% in the yield production risk for RCP 8.5. The main reason for such results was associated with the positive effect of increasing CO2 on crop water productivity, which overcomes the negative effects of temperature and water stress increases on rainfed Brazilian soybeans.
ISSN:1161-0301
1873-7331
DOI:10.1016/j.eja.2021.126329