Nationwide temporal variability of droughts in the Kingdom of Eswatini: 1981–2018

For adequate mitigation and adaptation measures, it is essential to have detailed analysis of droughts patterns. This study determined the i) occurrence and severity of droughts ii) drought recurrence frequencies and iii) drought trends across different agro-ecological zones in the Kingdom of Eswati...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Heliyon Vol. 6; no. 12; p. e05707
Main Authors:	Tfwala, C.M., Mengistu, A.G., Seyama, E., Mosia, M.S., van Rensburg, L.D., Mvubu, B., Mbingo, M., Dlamini, P.
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	England Elsevier Ltd 01-12-2020 Elsevier
Subjects:	Agricultural water management Agronomy Climatology Drought Drought re-occurrence Drought trends Earth-surface processes Hydrology Seasonal shifts Standardised precipitation index Climatology Earth-surface processes Hydrology Drought re-occurrence Agronomy Drought trends Seasonal shifts Drought Standardised precipitation index Agricultural water management
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Summary:	For adequate mitigation and adaptation measures, it is essential to have detailed analysis of droughts patterns. This study determined the i) occurrence and severity of droughts ii) drought recurrence frequencies and iii) drought trends across different agro-ecological zones in the Kingdom of Eswatini for the period 1981 to 2018. A Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) computed from long-term precipitation data measured from six meteorological stations was used to determine drought occurrence and severity. Python software (Version 3.6) was applied on the SPI values to predict the recurrence of drought events over time in years. The SPI showed that in the Highveld, 42% of the droughts were moderate, 32% were severe and the remaining 26%, which all occurred post 1980 were extreme (SPI -2.34 to -2.82). The Middleveld had an even proportion of drought categories (29–35%). The Lowveld recorded 62% of moderate, 8% severe and 30% extreme droughts of which 70% occurred post 2000. Moderate droughts were found to recur every 4–5 years while extreme droughts are expected every 13–21 years. These findings are essential for mitigation and adaptation measures geared towards the adverse effects of droughts. Drought; Standardised precipitation index; Seasonal shifts; Drought re-occurrence; Drought trends; Agricultural water management; Agronomy; Climatology; Earth-surface processes; Hydrology.
Bibliography:	ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23
ISSN:	2405-8440 2405-8440
DOI:	10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e05707