Can We Predict Subsurface Mass Transport?

Can We Predict Subsurface Mass Transport?

Predictions of contaminant transport produced by computer models are now widely used to evaluate health risks, determine remediation strategies, and guide environmental regulatory decisions. But model prediction errors are not generally well-known or quantified. In this study, the results of an exte...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental science & technology Vol. 34; no. 18; pp. 4010 - 4017
Main Authors: Eggleston, Jack R, Rojstaczer, Stuart A
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Washington, DC American Chemical Society 15-09-2000
Subjects:
Applied sciences
Computer based modeling
Contamination
Earth sciences
Earth, ocean, space
Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics
Exact sciences and technology
Groundwater
Groundwaters
Natural water pollution
Permeability
Pollution
Pollution, environment geology
Water pollution
Water treatment and pollution
Mississippi
United States
North America
America
USA, Mississippi
Transport process
Error estimation
Computer simulation
Pollutant behavior
Water pollution
Forecast model
Modeling
Ground water
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Summary:Predictions of contaminant transport produced by computer models are now widely used to evaluate health risks, determine remediation strategies, and guide environmental regulatory decisions. But model prediction errors are not generally well-known or quantified. In this study, the results of an extensive tracer test at the Columbus Air Force Base (CAFB), MS, test site are used to quantify error in computer model predictions of groundwater contaminant movement in the subsurface. Our modeling assumes no knowledge of the observed solute transport, uses widely applied modeling methods to generate computer predictions, and uses permeability and water levels as input data. Predicted and observed mass transport differ significantly, despite the relative abundance of aquifer data. It is not possible to accurately predict mass transport at CAFB using our approach because permeability cannot be characterized at the necessary resolution. Prediction errors at Superfund sites and other contaminated groundwater sites may be even higher because data is less abundant. This suggests that widespread use of predictive mass transport models that depend strictly on measured permeability and head values to predict transport should receive greater scrutiny and that methods of model parametrization based on early transport behavior should be more widely applied.
Bibliography:istex:C66928D18F900F6718DBD92DBCE597C97A84140E
ark:/67375/TPS-WDP79H98-9
ObjectType-Article-2
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ISSN:0013-936X
1520-5851
DOI:10.1021/es000903s