Search Results - "Risbey, James S"

On the definition and identifiability of the alleged “hiatus” in global warming by Lewandowsky, Stephan, Risbey, James S., Oreskes, Naomi

“…Recent public debate and the scientific literature have frequently cited a “pause” or “hiatus” in global warming. Yet, multiple sources of evidence show that…”
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A large-scale view of marine heatwaves revealed by archetype analysis by Chapman, Christopher C., Monselesan, Didier P., Risbey, James S., Feng, Ming, Sloyan, Bernadette M.

“…Marine heatwaves can have disastrous impacts on ecosystems and marine industries. Given their potential consequences, it is important to understand how…”
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What causes southeast Australia's worst droughts? by Ummenhofer, Caroline C., England, Matthew H., McIntosh, Peter C., Meyers, Gary A., Pook, Michael J., Risbey, James S., Gupta, Alexander Sen, Taschetto, Andréa S.

“…Since 1995, a large region of Australia has been gripped by the most severe drought in living memory, the so‐called “Big Dry”. The ramifications for affected…”
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Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading by Risbey, James S., Squire, Dougal T., Black, Amanda S., DelSole, Timothy, Lepore, Chiara, Matear, Richard J., Monselesan, Didier P., Moore, Thomas S., Richardson, Doug, Schepen, Andrew, Tippett, Michael K., Tozer, Carly R.

“…Assessments of climate forecast skill depend on choices made by the assessor. In this perspective, we use forecasts of the El Niño-Southern-Oscillation to…”
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Global increase in wildfire potential from compound fire weather and drought by Richardson, Doug, Black, Amanda S., Irving, Damien, Matear, Richard J., Monselesan, Didier P., Risbey, James S., Squire, Dougal T., Tozer, Carly R.

“…Wildfire can cause significant adverse impacts to society and the environment. Weather and climate play an important role in modulating wildfire activity. We…”
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Well-estimated global surface warming in climate projections selected for ENSO phase by Risbey, James S., Lewandowsky, Stephan, Langlais, Clothilde, Monselesan, Didier P., O’Kane, Terence J., Oreskes, Naomi

“…The question of how climate model projections have tracked the actual evolution of global mean surface air temperature is important in establishing the…”
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Interannual ENSO diversity, transitions, and projected changes in observations and climate models by Freund, Mandy B, Brown, Josephine R, Marshall, Andrew G, Tozer, Carly R, Henley, Benjamin J, Risbey, James S, Ramesh, Nandini, Lieber, Ruby, Sharmila, S

“…Abstract Diverse characteristics of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events challenge the traditional view of tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere systems. The…”
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A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence by Risbey, James S, Lewandowsky, Stephan, Cowtan, Kevin, Oreskes, Naomi, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Jokimäki, Ari, Foster, Grant

“…This work reviews the literature on an alleged global warming 'pause' in global mean surface temperature (GMST) to determine how it has been defined, what time…”
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Indian and Pacific Ocean Influences on Southeast Australian Drought and Soil Moisture by Ummenhofer, Caroline C., Sen Gupta, Alexander, Briggs, Peter R., England, Matthew H., McIntosh, Peter C., Meyers, Gary A., Pook, Michael J., Raupach, Michael R., Risbey, James S.

“…The relative influences of Indian and Pacific Ocean modes of variability on Australian rainfall and soil moisture are investigated for seasonal, interannual,…”
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Likelihood of unprecedented drought and fire weather during Australia’s 2019 megafires by Squire, Dougal T., Richardson, Doug, Risbey, James S., Black, Amanda S., Kitsios, Vassili, Matear, Richard J., Monselesan, Didier, Moore, Thomas S., Tozer, Carly R.

“…Between June 2019 and March 2020, thousands of wildfires spread devastation across Australia at the tragic cost of many lives, vast areas of burnt forest, and…”
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Implications of CMIP3 model biases and uncertainties for climate projections in the western tropical Pacific by Brown, Jaclyn N., Sen Gupta, Alex, Brown, Josephine R., Muir, Les C., Risbey, James S., Whetton, Penny, Zhang, Xuebin, Ganachaud, Alexandre, Murphy, Brad, Wijffels, Susan E.

“…Regional climate projections in the Pacific region are potentially sensitive to a range of existing model biases. This study examines the implications of…”
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The 'pause' in global warming in historical context: (II). Comparing models to observations by Lewandowsky, Stephan, Cowtan, Kevin, Risbey, James S, Mann, Michael E, Steinman, Byron A, Oreskes, Naomi, Rahmstorf, Stefan

“…We review the evidence for a putative early 21st-century divergence between global mean surface temperature (GMST) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project…”
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A multiproxy index of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, A.D. 1525–1982 by Braganza, Karl, Gergis, Joëlle L., Power, Scott B., Risbey, James S., Fowler, Anthony M.

“…An understanding of past variability in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), on interannual, interdecadal, and longer time scales, would be useful in…”
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Impacts of ENSO on Australian rainfall: what not to expect by Tozer, Carly R., Risbey, James S., Monselesan, Didier P., Pook, Mike J., Irving, Damien, Ramesh, Nandini, Reddy, Jyoteeshkumar, Squire, Dougal T.

“…In eastern Australia we expect to experience wet conditions during La Niña and dry during El Niño events. We explore how well these expectations match…”
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Impact of Surface Forcing on Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking in the Australia–New Zealand Sector by Ummenhofer, Caroline C., McIntosh, Peter C., Pook, Michael J., Risbey, James S.

“…Characteristics of atmospheric blocking in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) are explored in atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations with the…”
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Lessons learnt from a real-time attribution and contextualisation trial in a National Meteorological and Hydrological Service by Hope, Pandora, Nahar, Jannatun, Tolhurst, Gen C, Rauniyar, Surendra P, McKay, Roseanna C, Zhou, Linjing, Grose, Michael R, Trewin, Blair C, Martin, David J, Grainger, Simon, Ramchurn, Avijeet, Risbey, James S, Jones, David A

“…Abstract When a record hot month occurs, timely and credible attribution and contextualisation information can enhance public understanding and future…”
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A large ensemble illustration of how record-shattering heat records can endure by Risbey, James S, Irving, Damien B, Squire, Dougal T, Matear, Richard J, Monselesan, Didier P, Pook, Michael J, Ramesh, Nandini, Richardson, Doug, Tozer, Carly R

“…Abstract The record-shattering hot day in the Pacific Northwest in June 2021 is used to motivate a study of record-shattering temperature extremes in a very…”
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Common Issues in Verification of Climate Forecasts and Projections by James S. Risbey, Dougal T. Squire, Marina Baldissera Pacchetti, Amanda S. Black, Christopher C. Chapman, Suraje Dessai, Damien B. Irving, Richard J. Matear, Didier P. Monselesan, Thomas S. Moore, Doug Richardson, Bernadette M. Sloyan, Carly R. Tozer

“…With increased interest in climate forecasts and projections, it is important to understand more about their sources and levels of skill. A starting point here…”
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THE “PAUSE” IN GLOBAL WARMING: Turning a Routine Fluctuation into a Problem for Science by Lewandowsky, Stephan, Risbey, James S., Oreskes, Naomi

“…There has been much recent published research about a putative “pause” or “hiatus” in global warming. We show that there are frequent fluctuations in the rate…”
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Seepage: Climate change denial and its effect on the scientific community by Lewandowsky, Stephan, Oreskes, Naomi, Risbey, James S., Newell, Ben R., Smithson, Michael

“…•Appeals to scientific uncertainty are often used to forestall action on climate change.•We examine the seepage of this contrarian discourse into the…”
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