Ecological barriers mediate spatiotemporal shifts of bird communities at a continental scale

Species' range shifts and local extinctions caused by climate change lead to community composition changes. At large spatial scales, ecological barriers, such as biome boundaries, coastlines, and elevation, can influence a community's ability to shift in response to climate change. Yet, ec...

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Published in:	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 120; no. 23; p. e2213330120
Main Authors:	Marjakangas, Emma-Liina, Bosco, Laura, Versluijs, Martijn, Xu, Yanjie, Santangeli, Andrea, Holopainen, Sari, Mäkeläinen, Sanna, Herrando, Sergi, Keller, Verena, Voříšek, Petr, Brotons, Lluís, Johnston, Alison, Princé, Karine, Willis, Stephen G, Aghababyan, Karen, Ajder, Vitalie, Balmer, Dawn E, Bino, Taulant, Boyla, Kerem Ali, Chodkiewicz, Tomasz, Del Moral, Juan Carlos, Mazal, Vlatka Dumbović, Ferrarini, Alessandro, Godinho, Carlos, Gustin, Marco, Kalyakin, Mikhail, Knaus, Peter, Kuzmenko, Tatiana, Lindström, Åke, Maxhuni, Qenan, Molina, Blas, Nagy, Károly, Radišić, Dimitrije, Rajkov, Saša, Rajković, Draženko Z, Raudoniki, Liutauras, Sjeničić, Jovica, Stoychev, Stoycho, Szép, Tibor, Teufelbauer, Norbert, Ursul, Silvia, van Turnhout, Chris A M, Velevski, Metodija, Vikstrøm, Thomas, Wilk, Tomasz, Voltzit, Olga, Øien, Ingar Jostein, Sudfeldt, Christoph, Gerlach, Bettina, Lehikoinen, Aleksi
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	United States National Academy of Sciences 06-06-2023
Subjects:	animal Animal breeding Animals Biodiversity Biologi Biological Sciences bird Birds Birds - physiology breeding case report Climate Change Climate Research Climate studies clinical article Coasts Community composition Composition distribution shift Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Ecological effects Ecology Ecosystem Ekologi Elevation Forecasting Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap global change Jaccard dissimilarity Klimatforskning macroecology Natural Sciences Naturvetenskap nonhuman physiology resistance Species extinction Jaccard dissimilarity community composition distribution shift macroecology resistance
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Summary:	Species' range shifts and local extinctions caused by climate change lead to community composition changes. At large spatial scales, ecological barriers, such as biome boundaries, coastlines, and elevation, can influence a community's ability to shift in response to climate change. Yet, ecological barriers are rarely considered in climate change studies, potentially hindering predictions of biodiversity shifts. We used data from two consecutive European breeding bird atlases to calculate the geographic distance and direction between communities in the 1980s and their compositional best match in the 2010s and modeled their response to barriers. The ecological barriers affected both the distance and direction of bird community composition shifts, with coastlines and elevation having the strongest influence. Our results underscore the relevance of combining ecological barriers and community shift projections for identifying the forces hindering community adjustments under global change. Notably, due to (macro)ecological barriers, communities are not able to track their climatic niches, which may lead to drastic changes, and potential losses, in community compositions in the future.
Bibliography:	ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 1E.-L.M. and L. Bosco contributed equally to this work. Edited by Pablo Marquet, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; received August 3, 2022; accepted April 24, 2023
ISSN:	0027-8424 1091-6490
DOI:	10.1073/pnas.2213330120