Modelling the cumulative impacts of future coal mining and coal seam gas extraction on river flows: Applications of methodology

•Modelling the impacts of coal mining and coal seam gas extraction on streamflow.•Reductions in annual streamflow are proportional to the area of coal mine coverage.•For coal seam gas, reductions in annual streamflow are proportional to well density.•A zone of potential hydrological change is identi...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Journal of hydrology (Amsterdam) Vol. 598; p. 126440
Main Authors:	Viney, Neil R., Post, David A., Zhang, Yongqiang, Karim, Fazlul, Aryal, Santosh K., Gilfedder, Mat, Peña Arancibia, Jorge, Wang, Bill, Yang, Ang, Singh, Ramneek, Shi, Xiaogang, Crosbie, Russell S., Peeters, Luk J.M., Herron, Natasha F., Vaze, Jai, Marvanek, Steve, Crawford, Debbie, Ramage, Adam, Dehelean, Adrian, Gonzalez, Dennis, Li, Lingtao, Evans, Tim
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Elsevier B.V 01-07-2021
Subjects:	Coal mining Coal seam gas extraction Cumulative impacts Hydrological modeling Coal seam gas extraction Coal mining Hydrological modeling Cumulative impacts
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Summary:	•Modelling the impacts of coal mining and coal seam gas extraction on streamflow.•Reductions in annual streamflow are proportional to the area of coal mine coverage.•For coal seam gas, reductions in annual streamflow are proportional to well density.•A zone of potential hydrological change is identified, wherein impacts may be felt. This manuscript presents examples of the modelling of the impacts of coal mining and coal seam gas extraction on streamflow in five study catchments in Australia. The manuscript includes details on data preparation and model set-up and calibration. The modelling methodology enables the prediction of cumulative impacts from multiple future coal resource developments and distributes these predictions at multiple locations in the landscape. It is framed in terms of a structured uncertainty analysis to provide information on the likelihoods and potential ranges of various impacts. Also included is a qualitative uncertainty analysis which subjectively assesses the likely impact on model results of various assumptions made during the modelling procedure. Model results suggest that, in the Australian context, maximum percentage reductions in annual streamflow are approximately commensurate with the proportion of coal mine coverage. In coal seam gas fields, reductions in annual streamflow are proportional to well density. The manuscript goes on to demonstrate how these modelling results can be used to identify a zone of potential hydrological change within a catchment. This zone delineates those parts of the landscape where water-dependent landscape classes and assets may be vulnerable to change associated with changes in the streamflow regime. A corollary of this is that any parts of the landscape outside the zone of potential hydrological change are unlikely to be affected by coal resource development.
ISSN:	0022-1694 1879-2707
DOI:	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126440