Association between environmental and climatic risk factors and the spatial distribution of cystic and alveolar echinococcosis in Kyrgyzstan

Association between environmental and climatic risk factors and the spatial distribution of cystic and alveolar echinococcosis in Kyrgyzstan

Background Cystic and alveolar echinococcosis (CE and AE) are neglected tropical diseases caused by Echinococcus granulosus sensu lato and E. multilocularis, and are emerging zoonoses in Kyrgyzstan. In this country, the spatial distribution of CE and AE surgical incidence in 2014-2016 showed marked...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PLoS neglected tropical diseases Vol. 15; no. 6; p. e0009498
Main Authors: Paternoster, Giulia, Boo, Gianluca, Flury, Roman, Raimkulov, Kursanbek M, Minbaeva, Gulnara, Usubalieva, Jumagul, Bondarenko, Maksym, Müllhaupt, Beat, Deplazes, Peter, Furrer, Reinhard, Torgerson, Paul R
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: San Francisco Public Library of Science 01-06-2021
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Subjects:
Alveoli
Anthropogenic factors
Autoregressive models
Biology and Life Sciences
Climate change
Community
Cysts
Disease
Distribution
Echinococcosis
Ecology and Environmental Sciences
Environmental aspects
Environmental factors
Environmental risk
Epidemiology
Heterogeneity
Identification
Latency
Life cycle
Life cycles
Medicine and Health Sciences
Parasitic diseases
Population
Remote sensing
Risk analysis
Risk factors
Satellites
Spatial distribution
Time lag
Transmission
Tropical climate
Tropical diseases
Variables
Zoonoses
Kyrgyzstan
Central Asia
China
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Summary:Background Cystic and alveolar echinococcosis (CE and AE) are neglected tropical diseases caused by Echinococcus granulosus sensu lato and E. multilocularis, and are emerging zoonoses in Kyrgyzstan. In this country, the spatial distribution of CE and AE surgical incidence in 2014-2016 showed marked heterogeneity across communities, suggesting the presence of ecological determinants underlying CE and AE distributions. Methodology/Principal findings For this reason, in this study we assessed potential associations between community-level confirmed primary CE (no.=2359) or AE (no.=546) cases in 2014-2016 in Kyrgyzstan and environmental and climatic variables derived from satellite-remote sensing datasets using conditional autoregressive models. We also mapped CE and AE relative risk. The number of AE cases was negatively associated with 10-year lag mean annual temperature. Although this time lag should not be considered as an exact measurement but with associated uncertainty, it is consistent with the estimated 10-15-year latency following AE infection. No associations were detected for CE. We also identified several communities at risk for CE or AE where no disease cases were reported in the study period. Conclusions/Significance Our findings support the hypothesis that CE is linked to an anthropogenic cycle and is less affected by environmental risk factors compared to AE, which is believed to result from spillover from a wild life cycle. As CE was not affected by factors we investigated, hence control should not have a geographical focus. In contrast, AE risk areas identified in this study without reported AE cases should be targeted for active disease surveillance in humans. This active surveillance would confirm or exclude AE transmission which might not be reported with the present passive surveillance system. These areas should also be targeted for ecological investigations in the animal hosts.
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RF and PRT also contributed equally to this work.
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
ISSN:1935-2735
1935-2727
1935-2735
DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009498