Combining the effects of biological invasion and climate change into systematic conservation planning for the Atlantic Forest

Biological invasions and climate changes are the major causes of changes in biodiversity, which reduce, shift, and extinguish species ranges. While climate changes have been widely used in systematic conservation planning (SCP), biological invasions are rarely considered. Here, we combine the effect...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Biological invasions Vol. 20; no. 10; pp. 2753 - 2765
Main Authors:	de Oliveira, Guilherme, de Souza Barreto, Bruno, da Silva dos Santos, Daniela, Queiroz de Matos, Vinícius, Seara Santos, Maria Cecília
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Cham Springer International Publishing 01-10-2018 Springer Nature B.V
Subjects:	Biodiversity Biological effects Biomedical and Life Sciences Climate change Climate effects Conservation Developmental Biology Ecological monitoring Ecological niches Ecology Endemic species Freshwater & Marine Ecology Fruit trees Introduced species Invasions Invasive species Life Sciences Model testing Niche overlap Niches Nonnative species Original Paper Plant Sciences Plant species Stability Atlantic Forest Biotic stability Species turnover Ensemble forecast Endemism Conservation priorities Irreplaceability
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Summary:	Biological invasions and climate changes are the major causes of changes in biodiversity, which reduce, shift, and extinguish species ranges. While climate changes have been widely used in systematic conservation planning (SCP), biological invasions are rarely considered. Here, we combine the effects of climate changes and Artocarpus heterophyllus Lam. (Moraceae) invasion on the SCP for endemic aromatic fruit tree species from the Atlantic Forest (EFAF). We tested the effect of invasion on SCP measures of species turnover, biotic stability, and irreplaceability. Ecological niche models were used to establish species environmental suitability for the preindustrial period for both invasive species and EFAF and to forecast to the end of the century (2080–2100). We calculated the niche overlap between the invasive species and EFAF and tested the overlap significance using a null model. We tested the biological invasion effect on the results using results with no species invasion correction. The niche overlap between A . heterophyllus and EFAF was significant for 50% of species in the preindustrial period and for 33% in the future. The spatial patterns of species turnover, biotic stability, and irreplaceability had significant effects on biological invasion changing the spatial pattern in both shape and magnitude, which can misplace and overvalue conservation priorities. We showed that the disregard of biological invasion on SCP can cause negative effects on SCP under climate change. We strongly recommend accounting for biological invasion in the evaluation of SCP.
ISSN:	1387-3547 1573-1464
DOI:	10.1007/s10530-018-1727-y