Search Results - "Parag, Kris V"

Improved estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers at low case incidence and between epidemic waves by Parag, Kris V

“…We construct a recursive Bayesian smoother, termed EpiFilter, for estimating the effective reproduction number, R, from the incidence of an infectious disease…”
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Risk averse reproduction numbers improve resurgence detection by Parag, Kris V, Obolski, Uri

“…The effective reproduction number R is a prominent statistic for inferring the transmissibility of infectious diseases and effectiveness of interventions. R…”
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Fundamental limits on inferring epidemic resurgence in real time using effective reproduction numbers by Parag, Kris V, Donnelly, Christl A

“…We find that epidemic resurgence, defined as an upswing in the effective reproduction number (R) of the contagion from subcritical to supercritical values, is…”
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Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence by Sabino, Ester C, Buss, Lewis F, Carvalho, Maria P S, Prete, Carlos A, Crispim, Myuki A E, Fraiji, Nelson A, Pereira, Rafael H M, Parag, Kris V, da Silva Peixoto, Pedro, Kraemer, Moritz U G, Oikawa, Marcio K, Salomon, Tassila, Cucunuba, Zulma M, Castro, Márcia C, de Souza Santos, Andreza Aruska, Nascimento, Vítor H, Pereira, Henrique S, Ferguson, Neil M, Pybus, Oliver G, Kucharski, Adam, Busch, Michael P, Dye, Christopher, Faria, Nuno R

“…[...]immunity against infection might have already begun to wane by December, 2020, because of a general decrease in immune protection against SARS-CoV-2 after…”
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Establishment and lineage dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the UK by du Plessis, Louis, McCrone, John T, Zarebski, Alexander E, Hill, Verity, Ruis, Christopher, Gutierrez, Bernardo, Raghwani, Jayna, Ashworth, Jordan, Colquhoun, Rachel, Connor, Thomas R, Faria, Nuno R, Jackson, Ben, Loman, Nicholas J, O'Toole, Áine, Nicholls, Samuel M, Parag, Kris V, Scher, Emily, Vasylyeva, Tetyana I, Volz, Erik M, Watts, Alexander, Bogoch, Isaac I, Khan, Kamran, Aanensen, David M, Kraemer, Moritz U G, Rambaut, Andrew, Pybus, Oliver G

“…The United Kingdom's COVID-19 epidemic during early 2020 was one of world's largest and was unusually well represented by virus genomic sampling. We determined…”
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Using information theory to optimise epidemic models for real-time prediction and estimation by Parag, Kris V, Donnelly, Christl A

“…The effective reproduction number, Rt, is a key time-varying prognostic for the growth rate of any infectious disease epidemic. Significant changes in Rt can…”
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Spatiotemporal invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 emergence by Kraemer, Moritz U G, Hill, Verity, Ruis, Christopher, Dellicour, Simon, Bajaj, Sumali, McCrone, John T, Baele, Guy, Parag, Kris V, Battle, Anya Lindström, Gutierrez, Bernardo, Jackson, Ben, Colquhoun, Rachel, O'Toole, Áine, Klein, Brennan, Vespignani, Alessandro, Volz, Erik, Faria, Nuno R, Aanensen, David M, Loman, Nicholas J, du Plessis, Louis, Cauchemez, Simon, Rambaut, Andrew, Scarpino, Samuel V, Pybus, Oliver G

“…Understanding the causes and consequences of the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern is crucial to…”
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An exact method for quantifying the reliability of end-of-epidemic declarations in real time by Parag, Kris V, Donnelly, Christl A, Jha, Rahul, Thompson, Robin N

“…We derive and validate a novel and analytic method for estimating the probability that an epidemic has been eliminated (i.e. that no future local cases will…”
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Using multiple sampling strategies to estimate SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological parameters from genomic sequencing data by Inward, Rhys P. D., Parag, Kris V., Faria, Nuno R.

“…The choice of viral sequences used in genetic and epidemiological analysis is important as it can induce biases that detract from the value of these rich…”
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Point process analysis of noise in early invertebrate vision by Parag, Kris V, Vinnicombe, Glenn

“…Noise is a prevalent and sometimes even dominant aspect of many biological processes. While many natural systems have adapted to attenuate or even usefully…”
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Genomic Epidemiology of Early SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Dynamics, Gujarat, India by Raghwani, Jayna, du Plessis, Louis, McCrone, John T, Hill, Sarah C, Parag, Kris V, Thézé, Julien, Kumar, Dinesh, Puvar, Apurva, Pandit, Ramesh, Pybus, Oliver G, Fournié, Guillaume, Joshi, Madhvi, Joshi, Chaitanya

“…Limited genomic sampling in many high-incidence countries has impeded studies of severe respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genomic epidemiology…”
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Using digital traces to build prospective and real-time county-level early warning systems to anticipate COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States by Stolerman, Lucas M, Clemente, Leonardo, Poirier, Canelle, Parag, Kris V, Majumder, Atreyee, Masyn, Serge, Resch, Bernd, Santillana, Mauricio

“…Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to affect the world, and the design of strategies to curb disease outbreaks requires close monitoring of their…”
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Retrospective evaluation of real-time estimates of global COVID-19 transmission trends and mortality forecasts by Bhatia, Sangeeta, Parag, Kris V, Wardle, Jack, Nash, Rebecca K, Imai, Natsuko, Elsland, Sabine L Van, Lassmann, Britta, Brownstein, John S, Desai, Angel, Herringer, Mark, Sewalk, Kara, Loeb, Sarah Claire, Ramatowski, John, Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina, Jauneikaite, Elita, Unwin, H Juliette T, Riley, Steven, Ferguson, Neil, Donnelly, Christl A, Cori, Anne, Nouvellet, Pierre

“…Since 8th March 2020 up to the time of writing, we have been producing near real-time weekly estimates of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and forecasts of deaths…”
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Impact of spatiotemporal heterogeneity in COVID-19 disease surveillance on epidemiological parameters and case growth rates by Inward, Rhys P.D., Jackson, Felix, Dasgupta, Abhishek, Lee, Graham, Battle, Anya Lindström, Parag, Kris V., Kraemer, Moritz U.G.

“…SARS-CoV-2 case data are primary sources for estimating epidemiological parameters and for modelling the dynamics of outbreaks. Understanding biases within…”
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How to Measure the Controllability of an Infectious Disease? by Parag, Kris V.

“…Quantifying how difficult it is to control an emerging infectious disease is crucial to public health decision-making, providing valuable evidence on if…”
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Sub-spreading events limit the reliable elimination of heterogeneous epidemics by Parag, Kris V.

“…We show that sub-spreading events, i.e. transmission events in which an infection propagates to few or no individuals, can be surprisingly important for…”
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On signalling and estimation limits for molecular birth-processes by Parag, Kris V

“…•Achievable precision on a signalling pathway is bounded by its capacity.•For birth-processes, a signalling motif called birth-following is found optimal.•It…”
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Tracking the emergence of disparities in the subnational spread of COVID-19 in Brazil using an online application for real-time data visualisation: A longitudinal analysis by Mee, Paul, Alexander, Neal, Mayaud, Philippe, González, Felipe de Jesus Colón, Abbott, Sam, Santos, Andreza Aruska de Souza, Acosta, André Luís, Parag, Kris V., Pereira, Rafael H.M., Prete, Carlos A., Sabino, Ester C., Faria, Nuno R., Brady, Oliver J

“…Brazil is one of the countries worst affected by the COVID-19 pandemic with over 20 million cases and 557,000 deaths reported by August 2021. Comparison of…”
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Adaptive Estimation for Epidemic Renewal and Phylogenetic Skyline Models by Parag, Kris V., Donnelly, Christl A.

“…Estimating temporal changes in a target population from phylogenetic or count data is an important problem in ecology and epidemiology. Reliable estimates can…”
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Jointly Inferring the Dynamics of Population Size and Sampling Intensity from Molecular Sequences by Parag, Kris V, du Plessis, Louis, Pybus, Oliver G

“…Estimating past population dynamics from molecular sequences that have been sampled longitudinally through time is an important problem in infectious disease…”
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