How Do Climate Change Experiments Alter Plot-Scale Climate?

To understand and forecast biological responses to climate change, scientists frequently use field experiments that alter temperature and precipitation. Climate manipulations can manifest in complex ways, however, challenging interpretations of biological responses. We reviewed publications to compi...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Ecology letters Vol. 22; no. 4; pp. 748 - 763
Main Authors:	Ettinger, A. K., Chuine, I., Cook, B. I., Dukes, J. S., Ellison, A. M., Johnston, M. R., Panetta, A. M., Rollinson, C. R., Vitasse, Y., Wolkovich, E. M.
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Goddard Space Flight Center Wiley 01-04-2019 Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Subjects:	active‐warming Biodiversity and Ecology budburst Case studies Climate change Climatic data Data retrieval Design of experiments direct and indirect effects Drying Environmental Sciences Experimental design Experiments feedback Feedback control Field tests Global Changes global warming hidden treatment Masks Meteorology And Climatology microclimate Sensitivity analysis soil moisture Soil temperature spring phenology structural control target temperature Temperature effects warming experiment Warming Experiment feedback target temperature spring phenology active-warming budburst global warming microclimate structural control direct and indirect effects soil moisture hidden treatment warming experiment Species distribution models Life cycle Species distribution Water availability Drought
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Summary:	To understand and forecast biological responses to climate change, scientists frequently use field experiments that alter temperature and precipitation. Climate manipulations can manifest in complex ways, however, challenging interpretations of biological responses. We reviewed publications to compile a database of daily plot-scale climate data from 15 active-warming experiments. We find that the common practices of analysing treatments as mean or categorical changes (e.g. warmed vs.unwarmed) masks important variation in treatment effects over space and time. Our synthesis showed that measured mean warming, in plots with the same target warming within a study, differed by up to 1.6° Celsius degrees (63% of target), on average, across six studies with blocked designs. Variation was high across sites and designs: for example, plots differed by 1.1°Celsius degrees (47% of target) on average, for infrared studies with feedback control (n = 3) vs. by 2.2° Celsius degrees (80% of target) on average for infrared with constant wattage designs (n = 2). Warming treatments produce non-temperature effects as well, such as soil drying. The combination of these direct and indirect effects is complex and can have important biological consequences. With a case study of plant phenology across five experiments in our database, we show how accounting for drier soils with warming tripled the estimated sensitivity of budburst to temperature. We provide recommendations for future analyses, experimental design,and data sharing to improve our mechanistic understanding from climate change experiments, and thus their utility to accurately forecast species' responses.
Bibliography:	GSFC GSFC-E-DAA-TN65060 Goddard Space Flight Center
ISSN:	1461-023X 1461-0248
DOI:	10.1111/ele.13223