Search Results - "Palmer, Tim"

The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Looking back (more than) 25 years and projecting forward 25 years by Palmer, Tim

“…This paper has been written to mark 25 years of operational medium‐range ensemble forecasting. The origins of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System are…”
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Record-breaking winters and global climate change by Palmer, Tim

“…Rising greenhouse gas emissions may have played a role in the severe 2013–2014 winter in the U.S. Midwest Just when it looked like spring was arriving this…”
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Climate forecasting: Build high-resolution global climate models by Palmer, Tim

“…International supercomputing centres dedicated to climate prediction are needed to reduce uncertainties in global warming, says Tim Palmer…”
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The scientific challenge of understanding and estimating climate change by Palmer, Tim, Stevens, Bjorn

“…Given the slow unfolding of what may become catastrophic changes to Earth’s climate, many are understandably distraught by failures of public policy to rise to…”
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Superdeterminism without Conspiracy by Palmer, Tim

“…Superdeterminism—where the Measurement Independence assumption in Bell’s Theorem is violated—is frequently assumed to imply implausibly conspiratorial…”
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Human Creativity and Consciousness: Unintended Consequences of the Brain’s Extraordinary Energy Efficiency? by Palmer, Tim

“…It is proposed that both human creativity and human consciousness are (unintended) consequences of the human brain’s extraordinary energy efficiency. The…”
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Uncertainty in weather and climate prediction by Slingo, Julia, Palmer, Tim

“…Following Lorenz's seminal work on chaos theory in the 1960s, probabilistic approaches to prediction have come to dominate the science of weather and climate…”
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Rethinking Superdeterminism by Hossenfelder, Sabine, Palmer, Tim

“…Quantum mechanics has irked physicists ever since its conception more than 100 years ago. While some of the misgivings, such as it being unintuitive, are…”
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Signal and noise in regime systems: A hypothesis on the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation by Strommen, Kristian, Palmer, Tim N.

“…Studies conducted by the UK Met Office reported significant skill in predicting the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index with their seasonal…”
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Invasive cervical cancer incidence following bivalent human papillomavirus vaccination: a population-based observational study of age at immunization, dose, and deprivation by Palmer, Tim J, Kavanagh, Kimberley, Cuschieri, Kate, Cameron, Ross, Graham, Catriona, Wilson, Allan, Roy, Kirsty

“…High-risk human papillomavirus causes cervical cancer. Vaccines have been developed that significantly reduce the incidence of preinvasive and invasive…”
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Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parametrizations: impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system by Weisheimer, Antje, Corti, Susanna, Palmer, Tim, Vitart, Frederic

“…The finite resolution of general circulation models of the coupled atmosphereocean system and the effects of sub-grid-scale variability present a major source…”
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How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation? by Weisheimer, Antje, Decremer, Damien, MacLeod, David, O'Reilly, Christopher, Stockdale, Tim N., Johnson, Stephanie, Palmer, Tim N.

“…Atmospheric seasonal predictability in winter over the Euro‐Atlantic region is studied with an emphasis on the signal‐to‐noise paradox of the North Atlantic…”
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Assessing real world vaccine effectiveness: A review of Scotland's approach to monitoring human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine impact on HPV infection and cervical disease by Cameron, Ross L, Palmer, Tim J, Cuschieri, Kate, Kavanagh, Kimberley, Roy, Kirsty

“…High-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infections can progress to cervical cancer which is the fourth most common cancer in women globally. In Scotland, the…”
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Machine Learning Emulation of Gravity Wave Drag in Numerical Weather Forecasting by Chantry, Matthew, Hatfield, Sam, Dueben, Peter, Polichtchouk, Inna, Palmer, Tim

“…We assess the value of machine learning as an accelerator for the parameterization schemes of operational weather forecasting systems, specifically the…”
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Supermeasured: Violating Bell-Statistical Independence Without Violating Physical Statistical Independence by Hance, Jonte R., Hossenfelder, Sabine, Palmer, Tim N.

“…Bell’s theorem is often said to imply that quantum mechanics violates local causality, and that local causality cannot be restored with a hidden-variables…”
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Periodic orbits in chaotic systems simulated at low precision by Klöwer, Milan, Coveney, Peter V., Paxton, E. Adam, Palmer, Tim N.

“…Non-periodic solutions are an essential property of chaotic dynamical systems. Simulations with deterministic finite-precision numbers, however, always yield…”
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A Generative Deep Learning Approach to Stochastic Downscaling of Precipitation Forecasts by Harris, Lucy, McRae, Andrew T. T., Chantry, Matthew, Dueben, Peter D., Palmer, Tim N.

“…Despite continuous improvements, precipitation forecasts are still not as accurate and reliable as those of other meteorological variables. A major…”
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Variability in seasonal forecast skill of Northern Hemisphere winters over the twentieth century by O'Reilly, Christopher H., Heatley, James, MacLeod, Dave, Weisheimer, Antje, Palmer, Tim N., Schaller, Nathalie, Woollings, Tim

“…Seasonal hindcast experiments, using prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), are analyzed for Northern Hemisphere winters from 1900 to 2010. Ensemble mean…”
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Seasonal to annual ocean forecasting skill and the role of model and observational uncertainty by Juricke, Stephan, MacLeod, Dave, Weisheimer, Antje, Zanna, Laure, Palmer, Tim N.

“…Accurate forecasts of the ocean state and the estimation of forecast uncertainties are crucial when it comes to providing skilful seasonal predictions. In this…”
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Building Tangent‐Linear and Adjoint Models for Data Assimilation With Neural Networks by Hatfield, Sam, Chantry, Matthew, Dueben, Peter, Lopez, Philippe, Geer, Alan, Palmer, Tim

“…We assess the ability of neural network emulators of physical parametrization schemes in numerical weather prediction models to aid in the construction of…”
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