Search Results - "Palmer, T. N."

On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts by Weisheimer, A., Palmer, T. N.

“…Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: how good are seasonal…”
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Simulating weather regimes: impact of model resolution and stochastic parameterization by Dawson, Andrew, Palmer, T. N.

“…The simulation of quasi-persistent regime structures in an atmospheric model with horizontal resolution typical of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate…”
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Towards the probabilistic Earth-system simulator: a vision for the future of climate and weather prediction by Palmer, T. N.

“…There is no more challenging problem in computational science than that of estimating, as accurately as science and technology allows, the future evolution of…”
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Estimates of flow‐dependent predictability of wintertime Euro‐Atlantic weather regimes in medium‐range forecasts by Matsueda, Mio, Palmer, T. N.

“…This study assesses the medium‐range flow‐dependent forecast skill of Euro‐Atlantic weather regimes: the positive and negative phases of the North Atlantic…”
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Systematic Model Error: The Impact of Increased Horizontal Resolution versus Improved Stochastic and Deterministic Parameterizations by Berner, J., Jung, T., Palmer, T. N.

“…Long-standing systematic model errors in both tropics and extratropics of the ECMWF model run at a horizontal resolution typical for climate models are…”
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Simulating regime structures in weather and climate prediction models by Dawson, A., Palmer, T. N., Corti, S.

“…It is shown that a global atmospheric model with horizontal resolution typical of that used in operational numerical weather prediction is able to simulate…”
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Climate extremes and the role of dynamics by Palmer, T. N.

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Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate by Palmer, T. N, Räisänen, J

“…Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide will almost certainly lead to changes in global mean climate. But because-by definition-extreme events…”
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ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions-Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs by Weisheimer, A., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Palmer, T. N., Alessandri, A., Arribas, A., Déqué, M., Keenlyside, N., MacVean, M., Navarra, A., Rogel, P.

“…A new 46‐year hindcast dataset for seasonal‐to‐annual ensemble predictions has been created using a multi‐model ensemble of 5 state‐of‐the‐art coupled…”
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Using numerical weather prediction to assess climate models by Rodwell, M. J., Palmer, T. N.

“…Estimates of climate change remain uncertain—hampering strategic decision making in many sectors. In large part this uncertainty arises from uncertainty in the…”
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High-Resolution Global Climate Simulations with the ECMWF Model in Project Athena: Experimental Design, Model Climate, and Seasonal Forecast Skill by Jung, T., Miller, M. J., Palmer, T. N., Towers, P., Wedi, N., Achuthavarier, D., Adams, J. M., Altshuler, E. L., Cash, B. A., Kinter, J. L., Marx, L., Stan, C., Hodges, K. I.

“…The sensitivity to the horizontal resolution of the climate, anthropogenic climate change, and seasonal predictive skill of the ECMWF model has been studied as…”
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On the predictability of the extreme summer 2003 over Europe by Weisheimer, Antje, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J., Jung, Thomas, Palmer, T. N.

“…The European summer 2003 is a prominent example for an extreme hot and dry season. The main mechanisms that contributed to the growth of the heat wave are…”
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Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles by Thomson, M.C, Doblas-Reyes, F.J, Mason, S.J, Hagedorn, R, Connor, S.J, Phindela, T, Morse, A.P, Palmer, T.N

“…The control of epidemic malaria is a priority for the international health community and specific targets for the early detection and effective control of…”
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The economic value of ensemble forecasts as a tool for risk assessment: From days to decades by Palmer, T. N.

“…Despite the revolutionary development of numerical weather and climate prediction (NWCP) in the second half of the last century, quantitative interaction…”
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Simulating weather regimes: impact of stochastic and perturbed parameter schemes in a simple atmospheric model by Christensen, H. M., Moroz, I. M., Palmer, T. N.

“…Representing model uncertainty is important for both numerical weather and climate prediction. Stochastic parametrisation schemes are commonly used for this…”
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Signature of recent climate change in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation regimes by Palmer, T. N, Corti, S, Molteni, F

“…A crucial question in the global-warming debate concerns the extent to which recent climate change is caused by anthropogenic forcing or is a manifestation of…”
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A Nonlinear Dynamical Perspective on Climate Prediction by Palmer, T. N.

“…A nonlinear dynamical perspective on climate prediction is outlined, based on a treatment of climate as the attractor of a nonlinear dynamical systemDwith…”
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Number Formats, Error Mitigation, and Scope for 16‐Bit Arithmetics in Weather and Climate Modeling Analyzed With a Shallow Water Model by Klöwer, M., Düben, P. D., Palmer, T. N.

“…The need for high‐precision calculations with 64‐bit or 32‐bit floating‐point arithmetic for weather and climate models is questioned. Lower‐precision numbers…”
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The Invariant Set Postulate: a new geometric framework for the foundations of quantum theory and the role played by gravity by Palmer, T. N.

“…invariant under the action of some subordinate deterministic causal dynamics…”
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Reliability of decadal predictions by Corti, S., Weisheimer, A., Palmer, T. N., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Magnusson, L.

“…The reliability of multi‐year predictions of climate is assessed using probabilistic Attributes Diagrams for near‐surface air temperature and sea surface…”
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