The economic costs of planting, preserving, and managing the world’s forests to mitigate climate change

The economic costs of planting, preserving, and managing the world’s forests to mitigate climate change

Forests are critical for stabilizing our climate, but costs of mitigation over space, time, and stakeholder group remain uncertain. Using the Global Timber Model, we project mitigation potential and costs for four abatement activities across 16 regions for carbon price scenarios of $5–$100/tCO 2 . W...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature communications Vol. 11; no. 1; pp. 5946 - 9
Main Authors: Austin, K. G., Baker, J. S., Sohngen, B. L., Wade, C. M., Daigneault, A., Ohrel, S. B., Ragnauth, S., Bean, A.
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 01-12-2020
Nature Publishing Group
Nature Portfolio
Subjects:
704/844/682
704/844/843
706/1145
Carbon
Climate change
Costs
Deforestation
Economic impact
Emissions
Forest management
Forests
Global warming
Humanities and Social Sciences
Land management
Mitigation costs
multidisciplinary
Prices
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Timber
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Forests are critical for stabilizing our climate, but costs of mitigation over space, time, and stakeholder group remain uncertain. Using the Global Timber Model, we project mitigation potential and costs for four abatement activities across 16 regions for carbon price scenarios of $5–$100/tCO 2 . We project 0.6–6.0 GtCO 2  yr −1 in global mitigation by 2055 at costs of 2–393 billion USD yr −1 , with avoided tropical deforestation comprising 30–54% of total mitigation. Higher prices incentivize larger mitigation proportions via rotation and forest management activities in temperate and boreal biomes. Forest area increases 415–875 Mha relative to the baseline by 2055 at prices $35–$100/tCO 2 , with intensive plantations comprising <7% of this increase. Mitigation costs borne by private land managers comprise less than one-quarter of total costs. For forests to contribute ~10% of mitigation needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, carbon prices will need to reach $281/tCO 2 in 2055. Forests are critical for stabilizing our climate, but costs of mitigation remain uncertain. Here the authors show the global forest sector could reduce emissions by 6.0 GtCO 2  yr −1 in 2055, or roughly 10% of the mitigation needed to limit warming to 1.5 °C by mid-century, at a cost of 393 billion USD yr −1 , or $281/tCO 2 .
ISSN:2041-1723
2041-1723
DOI:10.1038/s41467-020-19578-z