Impact of climate change and human activities on the sustainable development of Xinjiang Aksu Oasis (China)

Aim of the study: To show that the Oasis in Xinjiang of China is facing serious sustainable development challenges due to the climate change and human activities, especially for the drought stress. Material and methods: Linear trend method, also known as linear trend forecasting method and linear fi...

Full description

Saved in:

Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Acta Scientiarum Polonorum. Formatio Circumiectus Vol. 20; no. 2; pp. 3 - 18
Main Authors:	Duan Zhengrong, Ni Mingxia, Tao Ya, Marcin Sobota, Xia Jianxin
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Publishing House of the University of Agriculture in Krakow 01-09-2021
Subjects:	aksu oasis hydrothermal equilibrium model suitable scale of oasis sustainable development
Online Access:	Get full text
Tags:	Add Tag No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!

Description
Summary:	Aim of the study: To show that the Oasis in Xinjiang of China is facing serious sustainable development challenges due to the climate change and human activities, especially for the drought stress. Material and methods: Linear trend method, also known as linear trend forecasting method and linear fitting, is the most studied and popular quantitative forecasting method so far. Based on the time series data during the observation period, it is assumed that the predicted variables have a linear function relationship with time, and is fitted into a straight line, so that the straight line can reflect the changing trend of the variables themselves, namely, a linear regression model. Results and conclusions: From 1961 to 2016, Aksu Oasis climate in general showed a "warm and wet" trend. From 1991 to 2016, the oasis area continued to expand, and the desert area showed a decreasing trend, and land use changed significantly. The regional water resources have obviously changed, and the average groundwater depth in the oasis area was between 3.55 and 4.35 meters, showing an increasing trend, while the groundwater level was decreasing. Water resources shortage is the most fundamental reason to restrict the expansion of oasis scale. The suitable oasis scale of Aksu Oasis in 1991, 2001 and 2016 is 12611.30, 15949.95 and 16631.59 km2, respectively, but the actual area of the oasis in the three periods is larger.
ISSN:	1644-0765
DOI:	10.15576/ASP.FC/2021.20.2.3