Present and Future High-Resolution Climate Forcings over Semiarid Catchments: Case of the Tensift (Morocco)

In semiarid areas, the climate is characterized by strong spatiotemporal variability while the meteorological ground network is often very sparse. In this context, the spatial distribution of meteorological variables is thus a real issue for watershed hydrology, agronomy and the study of surface–atm...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Atmosphere Vol. 12; no. 3; p. 370
Main Authors:	Moucha, Ahmed, Hanich, Lahoucine, Tramblay, Yves, Saaidi, Amina, Gascoin, Simon, Martin, Eric, Le Page, Michel, Bouras, Elhoussaine, Szczypta, Camille, Jarlan, Lionel
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Basel MDPI AG 01-03-2021 MDPI
Subjects:	Agronomy Air temperature Atmospheric models Catchment area Catchment scale Catchments Climate Climate change Climate models Computation Continental interfaces, environment Daily precipitation Datasets Disaggregation Distribution Euro-CORDEX Evaluation General circulation models Ground stations High resolution Humidity Hydrology In situ measurement Mediterranean MicroMet Mountain regions Mountainous areas Mountains Precipitation Real variables regional climate modelling Regional climate models Regional climates Regions Remote sensing Resolution SAFRAN Sciences of the Universe Semi arid areas semiarid Semiarid climates Snow Snow cover Snowfall Spatial distribution Spectroradiometers Water distribution systems Water resources Watershed hydrology Watersheds Weather stations Morocco United States > US Atlantic Ocean
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Summary:	In semiarid areas, the climate is characterized by strong spatiotemporal variability while the meteorological ground network is often very sparse. In this context, the spatial distribution of meteorological variables is thus a real issue for watershed hydrology, agronomy and the study of surface–atmosphere retroaction in these regions. The aim of this study is twofold: (1) to evaluate and to adapt a reanalysis system “Système d’Analyse Fournissant des Renseignements Adaptés à la Nivologie” (SAFRAN) to map the meteorological variables on the Tensift catchment (Morocco) between 2004 and 2014; (2) to project temperature and precipitation for the 2041–2060 horizon at high-resolution based on the Euro-CORDEX database at 12 km resolution (using two Representative Concentration Pathway -RCPs- scenarios and four Regional Climate Models), on the SAFRAN reanalysis and on a network of meteorological stations. SAFRAN was assessed: (1) based on leave-one-out for a station located in the plain and another in the mountains; (2) by comparison to another re-analysis system named the Meteorological Distribution System for High-Resolution Terrestrial Modeling (MicroMet); (3) by comparison to in situ measurements of snowfall at one station and to the daily Snow Cover Area derived from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) product at the catchment scale. The evaluation of the SAFRAN reanalysis showed that an irregular grid up to 1 km resolution is better for reproducing meteorological variables than the regular version of SAFRAN at 8 km, especially in mountains. The projection of the SAFRAN forcing is conducted in three steps corresponding to the three subsections below: (1) disaggregation of the Euro-CORDEX climate scenarios using the Q–Q approach based on stations data; (2) computation of the spatialized delta-change between historical and future Euro-CORDEX runs after Q–Q correction; (3) futurization of SAFRAN using the spatialized delta change values. The mountainous area is expected to face a higher increase in air temperature than the plains, reaching +2.5 °C for RCP8.5 and +1.71 °C for RCP4.5 over 2041–2060. This warming will be accompanied by a marked decrease in precipitation (−16% for RCP8.5). These present and future spatialized data sets should be useful for impact studies, in particular those focusing on water resources.
ISSN:	2073-4433 2073-4433
DOI:	10.3390/atmos12030370