Quantifying Earth System Interactions for Sustainable Food Production Via Expert Elicitation

Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations; not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored interactions among seven variables represen...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Nature sustainability Vol. 5; no. 10; pp. 830 - 842
Main Authors:	Chrysafi, Anna, Virkki, Vili, Jalava, Mika, Sandström, Vilma, Piipponen, Johannes, Porkka, Miina, Lade, Steven J, Mere, Kelsey La, Erlandsson, Lan Wang, Scherer, Laura, Andersen, Lauren S, Bennett, Elena, Brauman, Kate A, Cooper, Gregory S, Palma, Adriana De, Doell, Petra, Downing, Andrea S, DuBois, Timothy C, Fetzer, Ingo, Fulton, Elizabeth A, Gerten, Dieter, Jaafar, Hadi, Jaegermeyr, Jonas, Jaramillo, Fernando, Jung, Martin, Kahiluoto, Helena, Lassaletta, Luis, Mackay, Anson W, DCroz, Daniel Mason, Mekonnen, Mesfin M, Nash, Kirsty L, Pastor, Amandine V, Ramankutty, Navin, Ridoutt, Brad, Siebert, Stefan, Simmons, Benno I, Staal, Arie, Sun, Zhongxiao, Tobian, Arne, Liano, Arkaitz Usubiaga, Ent, Ruud J van der, Soesbergen, Arnout van, Verburg, Peter H, Wada, Yoshihide, Zipper, Sam, Kummu, Matti
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Goddard Space Flight Center Nature Research 01-10-2022 Nature Publishing Group UK Nature Publishing Group Springer Nature
Subjects:	704/172/4081 706/1143 Biosphere Earth Earth and Environmental Science Earth Resources And Remote Sensing Environment Food Food production Life Sciences Meteorology And Climatology Sustainable Development Sustainable food systems Sustainable production Earth System Interactions Green Water Food Production Expert Knowledge Elicitation Biogeochemical Flows Land System Change Earth System Modeling Earth System Processes Blue Water
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Summary:	Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations; not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored interactions among seven variables representing Earth system processes relevant to food production, identifying many interactions little explored in Earth system literature. We found that green water and land system change affect other Earth system processes strongly, while land, freshwater and ocean components of biosphere integrity are the most impacted by other Earth system processes, most notably blue water and biogeochemical flows. We also mapped a complex network of mechanisms mediating these interactions and created a future research prioritization scheme based on interaction strengths and existing knowledge gaps. Our study improves the understanding of Earth system interactions, with sustainability implications including improved Earth system modelling and more explicit biophysical limits for future food production.
Bibliography:	GSFC Goddard Space Flight Center
ISSN:	2398-9629 2398-9629
DOI:	10.1038/s41893-022-00940-6