Enhancing Assessments of Coastal Wetland Migration Potential with Sea-level Rise: Accounting for Uncertainty in Elevation Data, Tidal Data, and Future Water Levels

Sea-level rise rates are predicted to surpass rates of wetland vertical adjustment in the coming decades in many areas, increasing the potential for wetland submergence. Information on where wetland migration is possible can help natural resource managers for planning land acquisition or enhancing h...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Estuaries and coasts Vol. 47; no. 5; pp. 1166 - 1183
Main Authors:	Enwright, Nicholas M., Osland, Michael J., Thurman, Hana R., McHenry, Claire E., Vervaeke, William C., Patton, Brett A., Passeri, Davina L., Stoker, Jason M., Day, Richard H., Simons, Bethanie M.
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	New York Springer US 01-07-2024 Springer Nature B.V
Subjects:	Acquisition Coastal Sciences Digital Elevation Models Earth and Environmental Science Ecology Elevation Environment Environmental Management Error reduction Flood frequency Flooding Floods Freshwater & Marine Ecology Habitat connectivity Land acquisition Land cover Land use Management Applications Monte Carlo simulation Natural resource management Natural resources Sea level Sea level changes Submergence Uncertainty Water and Health Water levels Wetlands Coastal squeeze Uncertainty propagation Monte Carlo simulations Elevation error Wetland adaptation
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Summary:	Sea-level rise rates are predicted to surpass rates of wetland vertical adjustment in the coming decades in many areas, increasing the potential for wetland submergence. Information on where wetland migration is possible can help natural resource managers for planning land acquisition or enhancing habitat connectivity to bolster adaptation of coastal wetlands to rising seas. Elevation-based models of wetland migration are often hampered with uncertainty associated with ground surface elevation, current water levels (i.e., tides and extreme water levels), and future water levels from sea-level rise. Here, we developed an approach that involved digital elevation model error reduction and the use of Monte Carlo simulations that utilize uncertainty assumptions regarding elevation error, contemporary water levels, and future sea levels to identify potential wetland migration areas. Our analyses were developed for Duvall and Nassau Counties in northeastern Florida (USA). We focus on the migration of regularly oceanic-flooded wetlands (i.e., flooded by oceanic water daily) and irregularly oceanic-flooded wetlands (i.e., flooded by oceanic water less frequently than daily). For two relative sea-level rise scenarios based on the 0.5 m and the 1.5 m global mean sea-level rise scenarios, we quantified migration by wetland flooding frequency class and identified land cover and land use types that are vulnerable to future exposure to oceanic waters. The variability in total coverage and relative coverage of wetland migration from our results highlights how topography and accelerated sea-level rise interact. Our wetland migration results communicate uncertainty by showing flooding frequency class as probabilistic outputs.
ISSN:	1559-2723 1559-2731
DOI:	10.1007/s12237-024-01363-6