A regionally tailored epidemiological forecast and monitoring program to guide a healthcare system in the COVID-19 pandemic

During the COVID-19 pandemic, analytics and predictive models built on regional data provided timely, accurate monitoring of epidemiological behavior, informing critical planning and decision-making for health system leaders. At Atrium Health, a large, integrated healthcare system in the southeaster...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Journal of infection and public health Vol. 17; no. 6; pp. 1125 - 1133
Main Authors:	Turk, Philip J., Anderson, William E., Burns, Ryan J., Chou, Shih-Hsiung, Dobbs, Thomas E., Kearns, James T., Lirette, Seth T., McCarter, Maggie SJ, Nguyen, Hieu M., Passaretti, Catherine L., Rose, Geoffrey A., Stephens, Casey L., Zhao, Jing, McWilliams, Andrew D.
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	England Elsevier Ltd 01-06-2024 Elsevier
Subjects:	COVID-19 pandemic Effective reproduction number Forecasting and modeling Hospital resources Infection prevalence Public health surveillance Rt CI AH NC DHHS MAPE Effective reproduction number Hospital resources COVID-19 LOESS VECM COVID-19 pandemic SARS-CoV-2 NC Public health surveillance ARIMA Infection prevalence eSIR PELT ICU CRI Forecasting and modeling SIR
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Summary:	During the COVID-19 pandemic, analytics and predictive models built on regional data provided timely, accurate monitoring of epidemiological behavior, informing critical planning and decision-making for health system leaders. At Atrium Health, a large, integrated healthcare system in the southeastern United States, a team of statisticians and physicians created a comprehensive forecast and monitoring program that leveraged an array of statistical methods. The program utilized the following methodological approaches: (i) exploratory graphics, including time plots of epidemiological metrics with smoothers; (ii) infection prevalence forecasting using a Bayesian epidemiological model with time-varying infection rate; (iii) doubling and halving times computed using changepoints in local linear trend; (iv) death monitoring using combination forecasting with an ensemble of models; (v) effective reproduction number estimation with a Bayesian approach; (vi) COVID-19 patients hospital census monitored via time series models; and (vii) quantified forecast performance. A consolidated forecast and monitoring report was produced weekly and proved to be an effective, vital source of information and guidance as the healthcare system navigated the inherent uncertainty of the pandemic. Forecasts provided accurate and precise information that informed critical decisions on resource planning, bed capacity and staffing management, and infection prevention strategies. In this paper, we have presented the framework used in our epidemiological forecast and monitoring program at Atrium Health, as well as provided recommendations for implementation by other healthcare systems and institutions to facilitate use in future pandemics.
Bibliography:	ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23
ISSN:	1876-0341 1876-035X
DOI:	10.1016/j.jiph.2024.04.014