Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Plant Distributions in the Falkland Islands

The Falkland Islands are predicted to experience up to 2.2°C rise in mean annual temperature over the coming century, greater than four times the rate over the last century. Our study investigates likely vulnerabilities of a suite of range-restricted species whose distributions are associated with a...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	PloS one Vol. 11; no. 11; p. e0167026
Main Authors:	Upson, Rebecca, Williams, Jennifer J, Wilkinson, Tim P, Clubbe, Colin P, Maclean, Ilya M D, McAdam, Jim H, Moat, Justin F
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	United States Public Library of Science 23-11-2016 Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Subjects:	Analysis Annual temperatures Archipelagoes Biodiversity Biodiversity conservation Biology and Life Sciences Climate Change Climate models Climate prediction Climate variations Earth Sciences Ecology Ecology and Environmental Sciences Ecosystem biology Ecosystems Endangered species Environmental aspects Environmental impact Environmental Monitoring Falkland Islands Flowers & plants Global temperature changes Indigenous plants Islands Local climates Meteorological data Models, Biological People and Places Plants Precipitation Predictions Protected areas Protected species Refugia Regional climate models Regional climates Temperature Temperature rise Terrain models Threatened species Falkland Islands United Kingdom Antarctica United Kingdom > UK
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Summary:	The Falkland Islands are predicted to experience up to 2.2°C rise in mean annual temperature over the coming century, greater than four times the rate over the last century. Our study investigates likely vulnerabilities of a suite of range-restricted species whose distributions are associated with archipelago-wide climatic variation. We used present day climate maps calibrated using local weather data, 2020-2080 climate predictions from regional climate models, non-climate variables derived from a digital terrain model and a comprehensive database on local plant distributions. Weighted mean ensemble models were produced to assess changes in range sizes and overlaps between the current range and protected areas network. Target species included three globally threatened Falkland endemics, Nassauvia falklandica, Nastanthus falklandicus and Plantago moorei; and two nationally threatened species, Acaena antarctica and Blechnum cordatum. Our research demonstrates that temperature increases predicted for the next century have the potential to significantly alter plant distributions across the Falklands. Upland species, in particular, were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. No known locations of target upland species or the southwestern species Plantago moorei are predicted to remain environmentally suitable in the face of predicted climate change. We identify potential refugia for these species and associated gaps in the current protected areas network. Species currently restricted to the milder western parts of the archipelago are broadly predicted to expand their ranges under warmer temperatures. Our results emphasise the importance of implementing suitable adaptation strategies to offset climate change impacts, particularly site management. There is an urgent need for long-term monitoring and artificial warming experiments; the results of this study will inform the selection of the most suitable locations for these. Results are also helping inform management recommendations for the Falkland Islands Government who seek to better conserve their biodiversity and meet commitments to multi-lateral environmental agreements.
Bibliography:	ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. Conceptualization: RU CPC JFM JHM. Data curation: RU. Formal analysis: RU. Funding acquisition: RU CPC JHM. Investigation: RU. Methodology: RU JJW. Project administration: RU. Resources: RU JFM IMDM JHM. Software: RU JJW TPW IMDM. Supervision: RU. Validation: RU JJW. Visualization: RU TPW JFM. Writing – original draft: RU JJW. Writing – review & editing: RU JJW JFM CPC.
ISSN:	1932-6203 1932-6203
DOI:	10.1371/journal.pone.0167026