How stationary is the relationship between Siberian snow and Arctic Oscillation over the 20th century?

Both observational and numerical studies suggest that fall snow cover extent over Eurasia is linked to subsequent winter variations in the predominant Northern Hemisphere teleconnection pattern, known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The present study uses the recent 20th Century Reanalysis to explor...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Geophysical research letters Vol. 40; no. 1; pp. 183 - 188
Main Authors:	Peings, Y., Brun, E., Mauvais, V., Douville, H.
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Washington, DC Blackwell Publishing Ltd 16-01-2013 American Geophysical Union John Wiley & Sons, Inc
Subjects:	20CR reanalysis 20th century Arctic Oscillation Earth sciences Earth, ocean, space Exact sciences and technology Geology GEOSCIENCES Meteorology Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Siberian snow Snow Snow cover teleconnection Teleconnections Winter Eurasia Russian Federation Siberia Biennal oscillation satellites Teleconnection Seasonal forecast Predictor Space remote sensing Satellite observation digital simulation Statistical forecasting anomalies Measurement in situ Century 20th Onset time Winter Northern Hemisphere snow Reanalysis Snow cover Timing
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Summary:	Both observational and numerical studies suggest that fall snow cover extent over Eurasia is linked to subsequent winter variations in the predominant Northern Hemisphere teleconnection pattern, known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The present study uses the recent 20th Century Reanalysis to explore the snow‐AO relationship over the entire 20th century for the first time. 20th Century Reanalysis is first shown to have a consistently realistic simulation of the onset of the Eurasian snow cover compared to a large number of in situ observations. It is then used to explore the snow‐AO relationship over both the satellite and presatellite periods. Results show that this teleconnection is not stationary and did not emerge until the 1970s. The possible modulation of the teleconnection by the Quasi‐Biennal Oscillation is then discussed, because it could have favored the influence of snow anomalies on the Arctic Oscillation in recent decades. These results have important implications for seasonal forecasting and suggest, in particular, that statistical predictions of the wintertime AO should not be based on snow predictors alone. Key Points Fall snow cover from 20CR reanalysis is realistic over the 20th century The snow‐AO teleconnection is not stationary over the 20th century The snow‐AO relationship could have been modulated by the QBO
Bibliography:	ark:/67375/WNG-9JZD5M0P-7 ArticleID:GRL50039 istex:17E326B1EA4A39678EB37DCCAC3CC81AB541C92B USDOE Office of Science (SC)
ISSN:	0094-8276 1944-8007
DOI:	10.1029/2012GL054083