Quantitative risk assessment model of canine rabies introduction: application to the risk to the European Union from Morocco

Although rabies incidence in humans in Western Europe is low, the repeated importation of rabid animals from enzootic areas threatens the rabies-free status of terrestrial animals and challenges the public health systems in this area. Most rabid animals imported into the European Union (EU) in recen...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Epidemiology and infection Vol. 138; no. 11; pp. 1569 - 1580
Main Authors:	NAPP, S., CASAS, M., MOSET, S., PARAMIO, J. L., CASAL, J.
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Cambridge, UK Cambridge University Press 01-11-2010
Subjects:	Animals Biological and medical sciences Dog Diseases - epidemiology Dog Diseases - prevention & control Dogs Europe - epidemiology European Union Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology Immunization Infections Microbiology Miscellaneous Models, Biological Morocco Morocco - epidemiology Parametric models Pets Probability quantitative risk assessment Rabies Rabies - epidemiology Rabies - prevention & control Rabies - veterinary Rabies and pseudorabies Rabies Vaccines Risk analysis Risk Assessment Seasonal variations Seasons Surveillance Travel Vaccination Virology Morocco North Africa Africa Europe European Union rabies Morocco European Union quantitative risk assessment Fissipedia Carnivora Nervous system diseases Epidemiology Rabies virus Infection Virus Mononegavirales Vertebrata Mammalia Rhabdoviridae Viral disease Rabies Lyssavirus Models Veterinary Dog Quantitative analysis
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Summary:	Although rabies incidence in humans in Western Europe is low, the repeated importation of rabid animals from enzootic areas threatens the rabies-free status of terrestrial animals and challenges the public health systems in this area. Most rabid animals imported into the European Union (EU) in recent years came from Morocco. The aim of this study was to develop a probabilistic risk assessment model to estimate the probability of rabies introduction, which was applied to the risk to the EU from dogs coming from Morocco. The mean annual probability of rabies introduction was 0·21 (90% CI 0·02–0·65). The pathways that contributed the most to this probability were: (a) EU citizens who adopted a dog in Morocco (59% of the total probability) and (b) EU citizens who travelled with their dog to Morocco by ferry (34% of the total probability). The model showed a marked seasonality in the risk of rabies with almost 40% of the annual probability occurring during the months of July and August. The application of stricter border controls (assuming 100% compliance) would result in a >270-fold reduction in the likelihood of rabies introduction into the EU from Morocco.
Bibliography:	These authors contributed equally to this work. PII:S0950268810000415 ark:/67375/6GQ-ZMJDK5XK-J istex:F125044FA329A01387570F7AD84E495C17FDFC16 ArticleID:00041 ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 ObjectType-Article-2 ObjectType-Feature-1
ISSN:	0950-2688 1469-4409
DOI:	10.1017/S0950268810000415