Climate Forecasts. Part I: Current Status and Development Prospects

Climate Forecasts. Part I: Current Status and Development Prospects

The physical background and main types of climate forecasts issued by the world meteorological centers are considered. It is emphasized that modern forecasting systems have an integrated nature and combine not only data assimilation systems and global numerical atmosphere–ocean–land models, but also...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Russian meteorology and hydrology Vol. 49; no. 7; pp. 563 - 575
Main Authors: Kulikova, I. A., Vilfand, R. M., Khan, V. M., Kruglova, E. N., Tishchenko, V. A., Emelina, S. V., Kaverina, E. S., Nabokova, E. V., Subbotin, A. V., Sumerova, K. A., Tolstykh, M. A.
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Moscow Pleiades Publishing 01-07-2024
Springer Nature B.V
Subjects:
Atmosphere
Atmospheric models
Atmospheric Sciences
Climate models
Climate prediction
Climate system
Data assimilation
Data collection
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Economic sectors
Ensemble forecasting
Hydrometeorology
Mathematical models
Mathematics
Meteorology
Ocean models
Statistical methods
Weather forecasting
Russia
climate forecasts
climate services
regional climate forums
predictability
hydrodynamic modeling
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Summary:The physical background and main types of climate forecasts issued by the world meteorological centers are considered. It is emphasized that modern forecasting systems have an integrated nature and combine not only data assimilation systems and global numerical atmosphere–ocean–land models, but also support infrastructure for providing forecast products to users. The features of the forecast system of the Hydrometcenter of Russia/North Eurasia Climate Centre (NEACC) and other world meteorological centers are compared. It is noted that, unlike other centers, the forecast system of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia/NEACC is based on the integrated use of synoptic, statistical, and hydrodynamic methods. It has been revealed that new trends and directions in the development of the forecast system are associated with the emergence of a new version of the SL-AV global semi-Lagrangian finite-difference atmosphere model of the Hydrometcenter of Russia and the Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS) with an expanded (up to 61 members) forecast ensemble, as well as with using the INR RAS climate model (INM-CM5) and additional applications designed for interaction with various economic sectors. The findings may be useful in determining a vector of future research aimed at developing the Russian climate prediction system.
ISSN:1068-3739
1934-8096
DOI:10.3103/S106837392407001X