Environmental assessment of renewable energy scenarios for a sustainable future in Turkey

In this study, we aim to present the outcomes of the environmental impact assessment of renewable energy scenarios relevant with the sustainable perception in Turkey using energy modelling for the period 2014–2050. Therefore, we use the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System model and develo...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Energy & environment (Essex, England) Vol. 31; no. 2; pp. 237 - 255
Main Authors:	Saygın, Hasan, Oral, Hasan V, Kardaşlar, Serkan
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	London, England Sage Publications, Ltd 01-03-2020 SAGE Publications
Subjects:	renewable energy environmental assessment Turkey energy scenarios Sustainability
Online Access:	Get full text
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Summary:	In this study, we aim to present the outcomes of the environmental impact assessment of renewable energy scenarios relevant with the sustainable perception in Turkey using energy modelling for the period 2014–2050. Therefore, we use the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System model and develop three scenarios as follows: Reference Scenario, Alternative Scenario-I, and Alternative Scenario-II. We find that the total social costs in Reference Scenario, Alternative Scenario-I and Alternative Scenario-II are $88.75 billion, $76.73 billion and $71.15 billion per annum, respectively. Self-sufficiency of the country as the political impact factor in Reference Scenario is expected to be 10.5% in 2050, while it is 41.4% in Alternative Scenario-I and 54% in Alternative Scenario-II. In terms of greenhouse gas emissions, Reference Scenario leads to 736 million metric tons of CO₂-eq per annum, which is calculated to be 77.4% and 99.5% higher than Alternative Scenario-I and Alternative Scenario-II, respectively. We conclude that it is a necessity for Turkey to employ its renewable energy potential that it possesses in abundance with efficiency measures. Otherwise, missing this paradigm shift process may stir up a hornet's nest of harder sectoral challenges and externalities in the near future of the country.
ISSN:	0958-305X 2048-4070
DOI:	10.1177/0958305X19855992