A trip prediction model based on density stratification of the greater Toronto area

Population and employment within the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) are projected to increase at a steady rate over the next 25 years. Associated with these increments are the significant, concurrent rise in the amount of travel conducted over the present level. The forecast travel pattern will undoubtl...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author:	Jea, David P. W
Format:	Dissertation
Language:	English
Published:	ProQuest Dissertations & Theses 01-01-1990
Subjects:	Civil engineering Transportation
Online Access:	Get full text
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Summary:	Population and employment within the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) are projected to increase at a steady rate over the next 25 years. Associated with these increments are the significant, concurrent rise in the amount of travel conducted over the present level. The forecast travel pattern will undoubtly have immense impact on the road and transit infrastructure within the GTA. In order to mitigate the certain detrimental effects of congestion caused by the massive load increase on the existing transportation network, future travel demand and pattern within the GTA must be accurately projected and carefully analyzed. This thesis addresses the aforementioned issue by constructing a trip prediction model. Through the use of Transportation Tomorrow Survey (TTS) data, a new density measure of activity intensities, theoretical models, and various assumptions, the model produces a gross picture of the projected travel demand and pattern that is likely to occur within the Greater Toronto Area in the next quarter of a century under three different population and job opportunity growth scenarios. The ensuing output is examined and plausible, although preliminary, policy implications are then proposed. It is hoped that the prototype model developed here will serve to pave the way toward the creation of a much more sophisticated and refined tool for future trip prediction.
ISBN:	0315584394 9780315584396