Cancer in Iran 2008 to 2025: Recent incidence trends and short‐term predictions of the future burden

Policymakers require estimates of the future number of cancer patients in order to allocate finite resources to cancer prevention, treatment and palliative care. We examine recent cancer incidence trends in Iran and present predicted incidence rates and new cases for the entire country for the year...

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Published in:	International journal of cancer Vol. 149; no. 3; pp. 594 - 605
Main Authors:	Roshandel, Gholamreza, Ferlay, Jacques, Ghanbari‐Motlagh, Ali, Partovipour, Elham, Salavati, Fereshteh, Aryan, Kimia, Mohammadi, Gohar, Khoshaabi, Mostafa, Sadjadi, Alireza, Davanlou, Masoud, Asgari, Fereshteh, Abadi, Hakimeh, Aghaei, Abbas, Ahmadi‐Tabatabaei, Seyed‐Vahid, Alizadeh‐Barzian, Kazem, Asgari, Abbasali, Asgari, Noorali, Azami, Soheyla, Cheraghi, Maria, Enferadi, Floria, Eslami‐Nasab, Masoumeh, Fakhery, Jila, Farahani, Mohsen, Farrokhzad, Solmaz, Fateh, Mansooreh, Ghasemi, Ali, Ghasemi‐Kebria, Fatemeh, Gholami, Hajar, Golpazir, Arash, Hasanpour‐Heidari, Susan, Hazar, Narjes, Hoseini‐Hoshyar, Hosein, Izadi, Mohsen, Jahantigh, Mahdi, Jalilvand, Ahmad, Jazayeri, Seyed‐Mehrdad, Kazemzadeh, Yasan, Khajavi, Maryam, Khalednejad, Maryam, Khanloghi, Marziyeh, Kooshki, Maryam, Madani, Amineh, Mirheidari, Mahdi, Mohammadifar, Hosein, Moinfar, Zeinab, Mojtahedzadeh, Yasaman, Morsali, Ali, Motidost‐Komleh, Rita, Mousavi, Tahereh, Narooei, Maboobeh, Nasiri, Mohammad, Niksiar, Sharareh, Pabaghi, Mehdi, Pirnejad, Habibollah, Pournajaf, Azadeh, Pourshahi, Gita, Rahnama, Amir, Rashidpoor, Bahman, Ravankhah, Zahra, Rezaei, Khadijeh, Rezaianzadeh, Abbas, Sadeghi, Gholamreza, Salehifar, Mohammad, Shahdadi, Athareh, Shahi, Mehraban, Sharifi‐Moghaddam, Farrokh, Sherafati, Roya, Soleimani, Ali, Soltany‐hojatabad, Maryam, Somi, Mohammad‐Hossein, Yadolahi, Sohrab, Yaghoubi‐Ashrafi, Majid, Zareiyan, Aliakbar, Poustchi, Hossein, Zendehdel, Kazem, Ostovar, Afshin, Janbabaei, Ghasem, Raeisi, Alireza, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Malekzadeh, Reza, Bray, Freddie
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Hoboken, USA John Wiley & Sons, Inc 01-08-2021 Wiley Subscription Services, Inc
Subjects:	Adolescent Adult Age Factors Aged Aged, 80 and over Breast cancer Cancer Child Child, Preschool Colorectal carcinoma Control programs Female Follow-Up Studies Humans Incidence Infant Infant, Newborn Iran Male Medical research Middle Aged Models, Statistical Neoplasms - epidemiology Population structure predictions Prognosis Prostate Registries - statistics & numerical data Thyroid Time Factors time trends Trends Young Adult Iran time trends cancer Iran incidence predictions
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Summary:	Policymakers require estimates of the future number of cancer patients in order to allocate finite resources to cancer prevention, treatment and palliative care. We examine recent cancer incidence trends in Iran and present predicted incidence rates and new cases for the entire country for the year 2025. We developed a method for approximating population‐based incidence from the pathology‐based data series available nationally for the years 2008 to 2013, and augmented this with data from the Iranian National Population‐based Cancer Registry (INPCR) for the years 2014 to 2016. We fitted time‐linear age‐period models to the recent incidence trends to quantify the future cancer incidence burden to the year 2025, delineating the contribution of changes due to risk and those due to demographic change. The number of new cancer cases is predicted to increase in Iran from 112 000 recorded cases in 2016 to an estimated 160 000 in 2025, a 42.6% increase, of which 13.9% and 28.7% were attributed to changes in risk and population structure, respectively. In terms of specific cancers, the greatest increases in cases are predicted for thyroid (113.8%), prostate (66.7%), female breast (63.0%) and colorectal cancer (54.1%). Breast, colorectal and stomach cancers were the most common cancers in Iran in 2016 and are predicted to remain the leading cancers nationally in 2025. The increasing trends in incidence of most common cancers in Iran reinforce the need for the tailored design and implementation of effective national cancer control programs across the country. What's new? How should resources best be divided between cancer prevention, treatment and palliative care? In an effort to improve predictive models, the authors of this Iranian study developed a method to extrapolate cancer‐incidence data onto a timeline that extends through 2025. The method predicts that the number of new cancer cases in Iran will increase by 43% between 2016 and 2025. Breast, colorectal, and stomach cancers will remain the leading cancers, although the largest relative increase in cancer cases will occur for cancers of the thyroid and prostate.
Bibliography:	Funding information INPCR Secretariat in the Cancer Office of the Iranian Ministry of Health; Golestan University of Medical Sciences (GOUMS) ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23
ISSN:	0020-7136 1097-0215
DOI:	10.1002/ijc.33574