Quantification and visualisation of extreme wind effects on transmission network outage probability and wind generation output

An approach is demonstrated to visualise overhead line failure rates and estimated wind power output during extreme wind events on transmission networks. Reanalysis data is combined with network data and line failure models to illustrate spatially resolved line failure probability with data correcte...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	IET smart grid Vol. 3; no. 2; pp. 112 - 122
Main Authors:	Jamieson, Magnus R., Strbac, Goran, Bell, Keith R.W.
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Durham The Institution of Engineering and Technology 01-04-2020 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Wiley
Subjects:	A9260G Winds and their effects in the lower atmosphere A9260X Weather analysis and prediction Alternative energy sources Altitude Approximation asset altitude B0170N Reliability B0240Z Other topics in statistics B8120J Distribution networks B8130F Overhead power lines B8245 Wind power plants corrected power curve estimated wind power output extreme wind effects extreme wind events Failure failure analysis forecasted weather conditions high speed shutdown line failure models lines considerate Meteorological data methods modelling risk network data Networks overhead line failure rates overhead line networks overhead lines power distribution reliability Power lines power overhead lines power transmission reliability Probability reanalysis data Representations Risk robust method spatially resolved line failure probability storms transmission network outage probability transmission networks Vegetation Weather weather data Weather forecasting weather-related failure rates wind Wind effects wind generation output wind output Wind power wind power plants Wind speed United Kingdom > UK
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Summary:	An approach is demonstrated to visualise overhead line failure rates and estimated wind power output during extreme wind events on transmission networks. Reanalysis data is combined with network data and line failure models to illustrate spatially resolved line failure probability with data corrected for asset altitude and exposure. Wind output is estimated using a corrected power curve to account for high speed shutdown with wind speed corrected for altitude. Case studies demonstrate these methods' application on representations of real networks of different scales. The proposed methods allow users to determine at‐risk regions of overhead line networks and to estimate the impact on wind power output. Such techniques could equally be applied to forecasted weather conditions to aid in resilience planning. The methods are shown to be particularly sensitive to the weather data used, especially when modelling risk on overhead lines, but are still shown to be useful as an indicative representation of system risk. The techniques also provide a more robust method of representing weather‐related failure rates on lines considerate of the altitude, voltage level, and their varying exposure to weather conditions than current techniques typically provide, which can be used to usefully represent failure probability of lines during storms.
ISSN:	2515-2947 2515-2947
DOI:	10.1049/iet-stg.2019.0145