The impact of forest restoration on agriculture in the Verde River watershed, Arizona, USA

Known as the Four Forest Restoration Initiative (4FRI), the US Forest Service is planning a large-scale restoration of ponderosa pine forests in the Verde River watershed in central Arizona, USA. This paper uses a reduced-form econometric regression model with 1969–2010 time-series data to estimate...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Forest policy and economics Vol. 109; p. 101999
Main Authors:	Zhao, Xiaobing, Du, Ding, Xiong, Jun, Springer, Abraham, Masek Lopez, Sharon R., Winkler, Blake, Hubler, Kenedy
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Amsterdam Elsevier B.V 01-12-2019 Elsevier Science Ltd
Subjects:	Agricultural economics Agricultural irrigation Agriculture Coniferous forests Drought Ecological services Econometrics Economic models Environmental restoration Farm income Farms Forest restoration Forests Natural disasters Regression models Restoration Rivers Statistical analysis Time periods Time-series model Verde River Water supply Water use Water yield Watersheds United States > US Verde River Arizona Q10 Agricultural irrigation Verde River C22 Q57 Q23 Time-series model Q25 Water supply Ecological services Forest restoration
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Summary:	Known as the Four Forest Restoration Initiative (4FRI), the US Forest Service is planning a large-scale restoration of ponderosa pine forests in the Verde River watershed in central Arizona, USA. This paper uses a reduced-form econometric regression model with 1969–2010 time-series data to estimate the economic benefits of the increased water yield due to planned forest restoration of the first phase of 4FRI. We split the data sample into 1969–1989 and 1990–2010 time periods, and conclude during the second time period, water use is statistically and economically significant. This is consistent with the reality that the Verde River watershed has been in drought since the early 1990s. Our central finding is, if water use increases by 1%, the farm income will increase by 1.33%. If a 5–10% increase in water yield caused by the first phase of the 4FRI is all used by agriculture, agricultural income will increase by 6.65–13.3% annually. •The Four Forest Restoration Initiative in Arizona, USA increases water yield.•Increased water yield benefits agriculture in the Verde River watershed.•Water yield is expected to rise by 5–10% by the end of the 10-year restoration period.•The result is agricultural income will increase by 6.65–13.3% annually.
ISSN:	1389-9341 1872-7050
DOI:	10.1016/j.forpol.2019.101999