Shifts in caterpillar biomass phenology due to climate change and its impact on the breeding biology of an insectivorous bird

Timing of reproduction has major fitness consequences, which can only be understood when the phenology of the food for the offspring is quantified. For insectivorous birds, like great tits (Parus major), synchronisation of their offspring needs and abundance of caterpillars is the main selection pre...

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Published in:	Oecologia Vol. 147; no. 1; pp. 164 - 172
Main Authors:	Visser, M.E, Holleman, L.J.M, Gienapp, P
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Berlin Springer 01-02-2006 Springer Nature B.V
Subjects:	air temperature Animal and plant ecology animal reproduction Animal, plant and microbial ecology Animals Aves Aviculture Biological and medical sciences Biomass Birds Birds - physiology Branches Breeding Caterpillars Chicks Climate Climate change Ecosystem feeding behavior Food Food Chain Frass Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology General aspects Global Change Ecology Insecta insectivores Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change interspecies relationships Invertebrates larvae Lepidoptera Moths - physiology Offspring Parus major Phenology Seasons Temperature Time Factors wild birds Netherlands Insecta Fitness ,Great tit Biology Phenology ,Timing of reproduction Biomass Climate change Vertebrata Reproduction Phenology Arthropoda Insectivorous Lepidoptera Timing Invertebrata Aves Parus major Climate modification Fitness
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Summary:	Timing of reproduction has major fitness consequences, which can only be understood when the phenology of the food for the offspring is quantified. For insectivorous birds, like great tits (Parus major), synchronisation of their offspring needs and abundance of caterpillars is the main selection pressure. We measured caterpillar biomass over a 20-year period and showed that the annual peak date is correlated with temperatures from 8 March to 17 May. Laying dates also correlate with temperatures, but over an earlier period (16 March - 20 April). However, as we would predict from a reliable cue used by birds to time their reproduction, also the food peak correlates with these temperatures. Moreover, the slopes of the phenology of the birds and caterpillar biomass, when regressed against the temperatures in this earlier period, do not differ. The major difference is that due to climate change, the relationship between the timing of the food peak and the temperatures over the 16 March - 20 April period is changing, while this is not so for great tit laying dates. As a consequence, the synchrony between offspring needs and the caterpillar biomass has been disrupted in the recent warm decades. This may have severe consequences as we show that both the number of fledglings as well as their fledging weight is affected by this synchrony. We use the descriptive models for both the caterpillar biomass peak as for the great tit laying dates to predict shifts in caterpillar and bird phenology 2005-2100, using an IPCC climate scenario. The birds will start breeding earlier and this advancement is predicted to be at the same rate as the advancement of the food peak, and hence they will not reduce the amount of the current mistiming of about 10 days.
Bibliography:	http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00442-005-0299-6 ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23
ISSN:	0029-8549 1432-1939
DOI:	10.1007/s00442-005-0299-6