Modeling streamflow sensitivity to climate warming and surface water inputs in a montane catchment
Gordon Gulch, an upper-montane forest watershed in the Colorado Front Range. As the climate warms, the fraction of precipitation falling as snow is expected to decrease and the timing of snowmelt is expected to shift earlier in spring. In snow-dominated regions, these changes in snow accumulation an...
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| Published in: | Journal of hydrology. Regional studies Vol. 39; p. 100976 |
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Goddard Space Flight Center
Elsevier B.V
01-02-2022
Elsevier |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Get full text |
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| Summary: | Gordon Gulch, an upper-montane forest watershed in the Colorado Front Range.
As the climate warms, the fraction of precipitation falling as snow is expected to decrease and the timing of snowmelt is expected to shift earlier in spring. In snow-dominated regions, these changes in snow accumulation and melt prompt us to examine downstream changes in streamflow. The objective of this study is to understand how changes in precipitation phase and snowmelt timing alter the timing of surface water inputs (i.e. rainfall and snowmelt) and the partitioning of these inputs between evapotranspiration and streamflow. We used the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model and Weather Research and Forecasting Model-based projections of future climatic conditions to simulate streamflow.
Modeled annual streamflow decreased by 22% for the period 2071–2100. Surface water inputs increased during winter when atmospheric water demand was relatively low. Subsequently, the winter-period partitioning of water (as rain or snowmelt) to streamflow (as opposed to evapotranspiration) increased, by 15%, while partitioning to evapotranspiration decreased, effectively buffering what would have otherwise been a larger net streamflow decline associated with warming. Seasonal streamflow buffering is unique to snow-influenced systems, as the magnitude and timing of water released from snowpacks is sensitive to warming. This effect may diminish as warming drives snow-influenced systems toward rain-dominance, with implications for hydrological and ecological processes and water-resource management.
•Assessed precipitation phase and snowmelt timing in historical and future climates.•Evaluated effects of warming on the timing of surface water inputs.•Quantified effects of warming on partitioning to streamflow.•Surface water inputs and partitioning to streamflow increased during winter months.•Seasonal increases in streamflow buffered a potential greater loss in water. |
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| Bibliography: | GSFC Goddard Space Flight Center |
| ISSN: | 2214-5818 2214-5818 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100976 |