The potential risks and impact of the start of the 2015–2016 influenza season in the WHO European Region: a rapid risk assessment

Background Countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region are reporting more severe influenza activity in the 2015–2016 season compared to previous seasons. Objectives To conduct a rapid risk assessment to provide interim information on the severity of the current influenza season....

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Published in:	Influenza and other respiratory viruses Vol. 10; no. 4; pp. 236 - 246
Main Authors:	Meerhoff, Tamara, Pereyaslov, Dmitriy, Brown, Caroline, Hasibra, I., Simaku, A., Sarkisian, S., Muchl, R., Popow‐Kraupp, T., Salimov, O., Thomas, I., Bastinac, D., Dedejic Ljubovic, A., Kovacevic Suljkanovic, M., Vukmir Rodic, N., Simunovic, A., Visekruna, V.V., Koliou, M., Jirincova, H., Kolsen Fischer, T., Krause, K.L., Mazick, A., Dontsenko, I., Lyytikainen, O., Murtopuro, S., Bonmarin, I., Cohen, J.M., Enouf, V., Levy, B.D., Turbelin, C., Chakhunashvili, G., Zakhashvili, K., Buda, S., Schweiger, B., Malisiovas, N., Mentis, A., Spala, G., Csohan, A., Kaszas, K., Molnar, Z., Löve, A., Sigmundsdottir, G., Duffy, M., O'Donnell, J., Waters, A., Mandelboim, M., Bella, A., Rizzo, C., Smagulova, M., Smagul, M., Saparova, G., Butirina, R., Nikiforova, R., Griskevicius, A., Muralyte, S., Mossong, J., Graziella, Z., Maistre, M.J., Rakocevic, B., Vratnica, Z., Lange, M., Dijkstra, F., Donker, G., Teirlinck, A., Hoek, W., Dudman, S., Kilander, A., Bednarska, K., Zielinski, A., Guiomar, R., Nunes, B., Eder, V., Spinu, C., Alexandrescu, V., Lupulescu, E., Burtseva, E., Sominina, A., Filipovic, S., Prosenc, K., Ucakar, V., Grgic Vitek, M., Larrauri, A., Pozo, F., Ali, M., Cordey, S., Kamolov, M., Bosevska, G., Mikik, V., Topal, S., Demchyshyna, I., Dykhanovska, T., Blatchford, O., Carman, W., Coyle, P., Nugent, C., Pebody, R., Reynolds, A., Smyth, B., Watson, J., Zambon, M., Rakhimov, R.
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	England John Wiley & Sons, Inc 01-07-2016 John Wiley and Sons Inc
Subjects:	2015–2016 Influenza season Age groups Collaboration Disease prevention Disease transmission Displaced persons Epidemiology Health surveillance Influenza Influenza A influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus Influenza vaccines Medical treatment Original Public health Respiratory diseases Risk assessment seasonal influenza Seasons Vaccines Viruses WHO European Region United Kingdom > UK Europe Ukraine Russia WHO European Region seasonal influenza 2015-2016 influenza season influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus
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Summary:	Background Countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region are reporting more severe influenza activity in the 2015–2016 season compared to previous seasons. Objectives To conduct a rapid risk assessment to provide interim information on the severity of the current influenza season. Methods Using the WHO manual for rapid risk assessment of acute public health events and surveillance data available from Flu News Europe, an assessment of the current influenza season from 28 September 2015 (week 40/2015) up to 31 January 2016 (week 04/2016) was made compared with the four previous seasons. Results The current influenza season started around week 51/2015 with higher influenza activity reported in Eastern Europe compared to Western Europe. There is a strong predominance of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 compared to previous seasons, but the virus is antigenically similar to the strain included in the seasonal influenza vaccine. Compared to the 2014/2015 season, there was a rapid increase in the number of severe cases in Eastern European countries with the majority of such cases occurring among adults aged <65 years. Conclusions The current influenza season is characterized by an early start in Eastern European countries, with indications of a more severe season. Currently circulating influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses are antigenically similar to those included in the seasonal influenza vaccine, and the vaccine is expected to be effective. Authorities should provide information to the public and health providers about the current influenza season, recommendations for the treatment of severe disease and effective public health measures to prevent influenza transmission.
Bibliography:	ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 Please see WHO European Region Influenza Network for members.
ISSN:	1750-2640 1750-2659
DOI:	10.1111/irv.12381