Geomechanical models for induced seismicity in the Netherlands: inferences from simplified analytical, finite element and rupture model approaches

Geomechanical models for induced seismicity in the Netherlands: inferences from simplified analytical, finite element and rupture model approaches

In the Netherlands, over 190 gas fields of varying size have been exploited, and 15% of these have shown seismicity. The prime cause for seismicity due to gas depletion is stress changes caused by pressure depletion and by differential compaction. The observed onset of induced seismicity due to gas...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geologie en mijnbouw Vol. 96; no. 5; pp. s183 - s202
Main Authors: Van Wees, Jan-Diederik, Fokker, Peter A., Van Thienen-Visser, Karin, Wassing, Brecht B.T., Osinga, Sander, Orlic, Bogdan, Ghouri, Saad A., Buijze, Loes, Pluymaekers, Maarten
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Cambridge, UK Cambridge University Press 01-12-2017
Subjects:
Awards & honors
Compaction
Decay rate
Depletion
Earthquakes
Exploitation
Fault lines
Faults
Finite element method
Gas fields
Geomechanics
Hydrocarbons
Mathematical models
Mechanical properties
Oil and gas fields
Original Article
Pressure
Pressure drop
Seismicity
Studies
gas depletion
tectonics
induced seismicity
geomechanics
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Summary:In the Netherlands, over 190 gas fields of varying size have been exploited, and 15% of these have shown seismicity. The prime cause for seismicity due to gas depletion is stress changes caused by pressure depletion and by differential compaction. The observed onset of induced seismicity due to gas depletion in the Netherlands occurs after a considerable pressure drop in the gas fields. Geomechanical studies show that both the delay in the onset of induced seismicity and the nonlinear increase in seismic moment observed for the induced seismicity in the Groningen field can be explained by a model of pressure depletion, if the faults causing the induced seismicity are not critically stressed at the onset of depletion. Our model shows concave patterns of log moment with time for individual faults. This suggests that the growth of future seismicity could well be more limited than would be inferred from extrapolation of the observed trend between production or compaction and seismicity. The geomechanical models predict that seismic moment increase should slow down significantly immediately after a production decrease, independently of the decay rate of the compaction model. These findings are in agreement with the observed reduced seismicity rates in the central area of the Groningen field immediately after production decrease on 17 January 2014. The geomechanical model findings therefore support scope for mitigating induced seismicity by adjusting rates of production and associated pressure change. These simplified models cannot serve as comprehensive models for predicting induced seismicity in any particular field. To this end, a more detailed field-specific study, taking into account the full complexity of reservoir geometry, depletion history and mechanical properties, is required.
ISSN:0016-7746
1573-9708
DOI:10.1017/njg.2017.38