Past and Future Responses of Soil Water to Climate Change in Tropical and Subtropical Rainforest Systems in South America

Past and Future Responses of Soil Water to Climate Change in Tropical and Subtropical Rainforest Systems in South America

The present study aimed to contribute to the diagnosis and advance the knowledge of the impacts of land use change and climate change on the tropical longleaf forest biome at the continental scale in South America (Biome 1 according to the WWF classification) for realizing scientific progress in the...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Atmosphere Vol. 14; no. 4; p. 755
Main Authors: Arévalo, Santiago M. Márquez, Delgado, Rafael Coll, Lindemann, Douglas da Silva, Gelsleichter, Yuri A., Pereira, Marcos Gervasio, Rodrigues, Rafael de Ávila, Justino, Flávio Barbosa, Wanderley, Henderson Silva, Zonta, Everaldo, Santana, Romário Oliveira de, de Souza, Renato Sinquini
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Basel MDPI AG 01-04-2023
Subjects:
Altitude
ARIMA analysis
Autoregressive models
Biomes
Climate and land use
Climate change
Climate models
Climate prediction
Climatic changes
drought vulnerability
Ecosystems
El Nino
El Nino phenomena
El Nino-Southern Oscillation event
Environmental aspects
Environmental economics
Forests
Future climates
future simulation
Harbors
Humidity
Land use
Moisture content
Moisture effects
Precipitation
Precipitation variations
Rain forests
Rainforests
Remote sensing
Sea level
Software
Soil moisture
Soil water
South America
Southern Oscillation
Time series
Vegetation
South America
Brazil
Rio de Janeiro Brazil
Andes Mountains
Atlantic Forest
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Summary:The present study aimed to contribute to the diagnosis and advance the knowledge of the impacts of land use change and climate change on the tropical longleaf forest biome at the continental scale in South America (Biome 1 according to the WWF classification) for realizing scientific progress in the search for convincing strategies and actions by different actors for the preservation of forests in the continent. The status and climate of the area, which harbors the tropical longleaf forests of South America, were assessed. Moreover, volumetric soil moisture (VSM) was evaluated through maps and simulation using the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA). Furthermore, future climate scenarios were predicted based on El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomena, meteorological systems, and scientific evidence, such as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and sociopolitical dynamics evident in the region from the case analysis of the Brazilian states of Acre and Rio de Janeiro. An increase was noted in the temperature and range of precipitation variation in the biome. ARIMA analysis indicated changes of up to 0.24 m3 m−3 and an increased range of future VSM values. The December–January–February (DJF) quarter recorded the highest VSM median with the measurement scale of 0.05 to 0.44 m3 m−3, while the June–July–August (JJA) quarter recorded the lowest value. The regions of the biome with the lowest VSM values included southern Amazon (Ecuador, Peru, and the Brazilian states of Acre, Mato Grosso, Pará, and Maranhão), Brazilian Atlantic Forest, Southeast Region, and the Brazilian state of Bahia.
ISSN:2073-4433
2073-4433
DOI:10.3390/atmos14040755