Drought risk in Moldova under global warming and possible crop adaptation strategies

Drought risk in Moldova under global warming and possible crop adaptation strategies

This study analyzes the relationship between drought processes and crop yields in Moldova, together with the effects of possible future climate change on crops. The severity of drought is analyzed over time in Moldova using the Standard Precipitation Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotransp...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences Vol. 1538; no. 1; pp. 144 - 161
Main Authors: Vicente‐Serrano, Sergio M., Juez, Carmelo, Potopová, Vera, Boincean, Boris, Murphy, Conor, Domínguez‐Castro, Fernando, Eklundh, Lars, Peña‐Angulo, Dhais, Noguera, Ivan, Jin, Hongxiao, Conradt, Tobias, Garcia‐Herrera, Ricardo, Garrido‐Perez, Jose Manuel, Barriopedro, David, Gutiérrez, Jose M., Iturbide, Maialen, Lorenzo‐Lacruz, Jorge, Kenawy, Ahmed El
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: United States Wiley Subscription Services, Inc 01-08-2024
Subjects:
Adaptation
Agricultural management
Agricultural production
Agricultural Science
Agricultural Science, Forestry and Fisheries
Agricultural Sciences
Annual precipitation
Annual rainfall
Cereal crops
Climate change
Climate models
Crop yield
crop yields
Crops
Drought
Environmental risk
Evapotranspiration
Global warming
Jordbruksvetenskap
Lantbruksvetenskap och veterinärmedicin
Lantbruksvetenskap, skogsbruk och fiske
Precipitation
Rain
Rainfall
Republic of Moldova
Satellite imagery
Spectral analysis
Spectroradiometers
Spectrum analysis
Variability
Vegetation index
Wavelet analysis
Moldova
crop yields
global warming
Republic of Moldova
drought
climate change
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Summary:This study analyzes the relationship between drought processes and crop yields in Moldova, together with the effects of possible future climate change on crops. The severity of drought is analyzed over time in Moldova using the Standard Precipitation Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and their relationship with crop yields. In addition, rainfall variability and its relationship with crop yields are examined using spectral analysis and squared wavelet coherence. Observed station data (1950–2020 and 1850–2020), ERA5 reanalysis data (1950–2020), and climate model simulations (period 1970–2100) are used. Crop yield data (maize, sunflower, grape), data from experimental plots (wheat), and the Enhanced Vegetation Index from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellites were also used. Results show that although the severity of meteorological droughts has decreased in the last 170 years, the impact of precipitation deficits on different crop yields has increased, concurrent with a sharp increase in temperature, which negatively affected crop yields. Annual crops are now more vulnerable to natural rainfall variability and, in years characterized by rainfall deficits, the possibility of reductions in crop yield increases due to sharp increases in temperature. Projections reveal a pessimistic outlook in the absence of adaptation, highlighting the urgency of developing new agricultural management strategies. This study analyzes the relationship between drought processes and crop yields in Moldova, together with the effects of possible future climate change on crops. Results show that although the severity of meteorological droughts has decreased in the last 170 years, the impact of precipitation deficits on different crop yields has increased, concurrent with a sharp increase in temperature, which negatively affected crop yields.
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content type line 23
ISSN:0077-8923
1749-6632
1749-6632
DOI:10.1111/nyas.15201