Can carbon emissions from tropical deforestation drop by 50% in 5 years?

Halving carbon emissions from tropical deforestation by 2020 could help bring the international community closer to the agreed goal of <2 degree increase in global average temperature change and is consistent with a target set last year by the governments, corporations, indigenous peoples' o...

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Published in:	Global change biology Vol. 22; no. 4; pp. 1336 - 1347
Main Authors:	Zarin, Daniel J., Harris, Nancy L., Baccini, Alessandro, Aksenov, Dmitry, Hansen, Matthew C., Azevedo-Ramos, Claudia, Azevedo, Tasso, Margono, Belinda A., Alencar, Ane C., Gabris, Chris, Allegretti, Adrienne, Potapov, Peter, Farina, Mary, Walker, Wayne S., Shevade, Varada S., Loboda, Tatiana V., Turubanova, Svetlana, Tyukavina, Alexandra
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	England Blackwell Science 01-04-2016 Blackwell Publishing Ltd John Wiley and Sons Inc
Subjects:	Brazil Carbon carbon emissions Climate change Conservation of Natural Resources Deforestation Emissions control forests Global warming Greenhouse gases Indonesia New York Declaration on Forests Opinion Tropical Climate Brazil New York Indonesia ANW, USA, New York ASW, Brazil Brazil New York Declaration on Forests carbon emissions forests Indonesia deforestation
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Summary:	Halving carbon emissions from tropical deforestation by 2020 could help bring the international community closer to the agreed goal of <2 degree increase in global average temperature change and is consistent with a target set last year by the governments, corporations, indigenous peoples' organizations and non‐governmental organizations that signed the New York Declaration on Forests (NYDF). We assemble and refine a robust dataset to establish a 2001–2013 benchmark for average annual carbon emissions from gross tropical deforestation at 2.270 Gt CO₂ yr⁻¹. Brazil did not sign the NYDF, yet from 2001 to 2013, Brazil ranks first for both carbon emissions from gross tropical deforestation and reductions in those emissions – its share of the total declined from a peak of 69% in 2003 to a low of 20% in 2012. Indonesia, an NYDF signatory, is the second highest emitter, peaking in 2012 at 0.362 Gt CO₂ yr⁻¹ before declining to 0.205 Gt CO₂ yr⁻¹ in 2013. The other 14 NYDF tropical country signatories were responsible for a combined average of 0.317 Gt CO₂ yr⁻¹, while the other 86 tropical country non‐signatories were responsible for a combined average of 0.688 Gt CO₂ yr⁻¹. We outline two scenarios for achieving the 50% emission reduction target by 2020, both emphasizing the critical role of Brazil and the need to reverse the trends of increasing carbon emissions from gross tropical deforestation in many other tropical countries that, from 2001 to 2013, have largely offset Brazil's reductions. Achieving the target will therefore be challenging, even though it is in the self‐interest of the international community. Conserving rather than cutting down tropical forests requires shifting economic development away from a dependence on natural resource depletion toward recognition of the dependence of human societies on the natural capital that tropical forests represent and the goods and services they provide.
Bibliography:	http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13153 Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs - No. QZA-13/0313 Global Forest Watch (GFW) Partnership ark:/67375/WNG-S14PXGMZ-K ArticleID:GCB13153 Appendix S1. Supplemental analysis, methodological detail, and data. Figure S1. Benchmark gross deforestation rates for (a) all countries within the pantropical study area; (b) Brazil; (c) Indonesia primary forests; (d) all tropical signatories of the New York Declaration on Forests; and (e) remaining tropical forested countries that did not sign the Declaration. Figure S2. Mapped plantations and tree cover loss in Malaysia between 2001-2013 for (a) peninsular Malaysia, (b) Sabah and (c) Sarawak. Table S1. Gross deforestation and carbon emission estimates for Brazil. Source: System of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimates (SEEG). Table S2. Tree cover loss and carbon emission estimates for areas inside and outside primary forests of Indonesia. Table S3. Tree cover loss and carbon emission estimates for areas inside and outside primary forests of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Table S4. Tree cover loss and carbon emissions from deforestation estimated for areas inside and outside plantation boundaries mapped for the year 2014. Table S5. Reference level information submitted by Parties to the UNFCCC and used in this analysis as national data. Table S6. Deforestation and carbon emissions from deforestation for Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana and Mexico. Woods Hole Research Center UK Department for International Development - No. 40078074 World Resources Institute ICESAT National Aeronautics and Space Administration Earth Science Division - No. NNH12ZDA001-NICESAT2 US Agency for International Development - No. AID-OAA-A-13-00045 CryoSat-2 - No. 12-ICESAT212-0022 istex:514B4611437B3A724B7FA587ACD9250D67791394 ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23
ISSN:	1354-1013 1365-2486
DOI:	10.1111/gcb.13153