Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis of Life Cycle Assessment for Algal Biofuel Production

Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis of Life Cycle Assessment for Algal Biofuel Production

As a result of algae’s promise as a renewable energy feedstock, numerous studies have used Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to quantify the environmental performance of algal biofuels, yet there is no consensus of results among them. Our work, motivated by the lack of comprehensive uncertainty analysis i...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental science & technology Vol. 47; no. 2; pp. 687 - 694
Main Authors: Sills, Deborah L, Paramita, Vidia, Franke, Michael J, Johnson, Michael C, Akabas, Tal M, Greene, Charles H, Tester, Jefferson W
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Washington, DC American Chemical Society 15-01-2013
Subjects:
Air pollution caused by fuel industries
Algae
Alternative energy
Alternative fuels. Production and utilization
Applied sciences
Biodiesel fuels
Biofuels
Biofuels - microbiology
Biomass
Energy
Energy. Thermal use of fuels
Exact sciences and technology
Expected values
Fuels
Lipids
Metering. Control
Microalgae - physiology
Miscellaneous
Models, Biological
Monte Carlo Method
Natural energy
Return on investment
Uncertainty
Case study
Monte Carlo method
Uncertainty
Algae
Ecobalance
Environment impact
Production
Biofuel
Biomass
Biodiesel
Modeling
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Summary:As a result of algae’s promise as a renewable energy feedstock, numerous studies have used Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to quantify the environmental performance of algal biofuels, yet there is no consensus of results among them. Our work, motivated by the lack of comprehensive uncertainty analysis in previous studies, uses a Monte Carlo approach to estimate ranges of expected values of LCA metrics by incorporating parameter variability with empirically specified distribution functions. Results show that large uncertainties exist at virtually all steps of the biofuel production process. Although our findings agree with a number of earlier studies on matters such as the need for wet lipid extraction, nutrients recovered from waste streams, and high energy coproducts, the ranges of reported LCA metrics show that uncertainty analysis is crucial for developing technologies, such as algal biofuels. In addition, the ranges of energy return on (energy) invested (EROI) values resulting from our analysis help explain the high variability in EROI values from earlier studies. Reporting results from LCA models as ranges, and not single values, will more reliably inform industry and policy makers on expected energetic and environmental performance of biofuels produced from microalgae.
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ISSN:0013-936X
1520-5851
DOI:10.1021/es3029236