Search Results - "Flyvbjerg, Bent"

What You Should Know About Megaprojects and Why: An Overview by Flyvbjerg, Bent

“…ABSTRACT This paper takes stock of megaproject management, an emerging and hugely costly field of study, by first answering the question of how large…”
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Top Ten Behavioral Biases in Project Management: An Overview by Flyvbjerg, Bent

“…Behavioral science has witnessed an explosion in the number of biases identified by behavioral scientists, to more than 200 at present. This article identifies…”
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Should we build more large dams? The actual costs of hydropower megaproject development by Ansar, Atif, Flyvbjerg, Bent, Budzier, Alexander, Lunn, Daniel

“…A brisk building boom of hydropower mega-dams is underway from China to Brazil. Whether benefits of new dams will outweigh costs remains unresolved despite…”
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Five Misunderstandings About Case-Study Research by Flyvbjerg, Bent

“…This article examines five common misunderstandings about case-study research: (a) theoretical knowledge is more valuable than practical knowledge; (b) one…”
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Regression to the tail: Why the Olympics blow up by Flyvbjerg, Bent, Budzier, Alexander, Lunn, Daniel

“…The Olympic Games are the largest, highest-profile, and most expensive megaevent hosted by cities and nations. Average sports-related costs of hosting are…”
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Rethinking digitalization and climate: don’t predict, mitigate by Gritsenko, Daria, Aaen, Jon, Flyvbjerg, Bent

“…Digitalization is a core component of the green transition. Today’s focus is on quantifying and predicting the climate effects of digitalization through…”
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How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects?: The Case of Transportation by Flyvbjerg, Bent, Skamris Holm, Mette K., Buhl, Søren L.

“…This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is…”
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Quality control and due diligence in project management: Getting decisions right by taking the outside view by Flyvbjerg, Bent

“…This paper explores how theories of the planning fallacy and the outside view may be used to conduct quality control and due diligence in project management…”
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Cost Overruns in Large-scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects: Explanations and Their Theoretical Embeddedness by Cantarelli, Chantal C., Flyvbjerg, Bent, Molin, Eric J.E., Wee, Bert Van

“…Managing large-scale transportation infrastructure projects is difficult due to frequent misinformation about the costs which results in large cost overruns…”
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The Fallacy of Beneficial Ignorance: A Test of Hirschman’s Hiding Hand by Flyvbjerg, Bent

“…•The principle of the Hiding Hand was recently re-published to prominent acclaim.•The present paper shows the principle to be a fallacy, despite notable…”
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The law of regression to the tail: How to survive Covid-19, the climate crisis, and other disasters by Flyvbjerg, Bent

“…Regression to the mean is nice and reliable. Regression to the tail is reliably scary. We live in the age of regression to the tail. It is only a matter of…”
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How common and how large are cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects? by Flyvbjerg, Bent, Skamris holm, Mette K., Buhl, Søren L.

“…Despite the hundreds of billions of dollars being spent on infrastructure development -- from roads, rail and airports to energy extraction and power networks…”
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Planning Fallacy or Hiding Hand: Which is the Better Explanation? by Flyvbjerg, Bent

“…This paper asks and answers the question of whether Kahneman's planning fallacy or Hirschman's Hiding Hand best explain performance in capital investment…”
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Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning: Reference Class Forecasting in Practice by Flyvbjerg, Bent

“…The American Planning Association recently endorsed a new forecasting method called reference class forecasting, which is based on theories of planning and…”
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Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets built—and what we can do about it by Flyvbjerg, Bent

“…The article first describes characteristics of major infrastructure projects. Second, it documents a much neglected topic in economics: that ex ante estimates…”
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How to solve big problems: bespoke versus platform strategies by Ansar, Atif, Flyvbjerg, Bent

“…Abstract How should government and business leaders solve big problems? Ought policy responses to occur in bold leaps or multitudinous methodical moves? Here…”
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Comparison of Capital Costs per Route-Kilometre in Urban Rail by Flyvbjerg, Bent, Bruzelius, Nils, Wee, Bert Van

“…Because of the prominent position of urban rail in reducing urban transport-related problems, such as congestion and air pollution, insights into the costs of…”
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From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risks Right by Flyvbjerg, Bent

“…A major source of risk in project management is inaccurate forecasts of project costs, demand, and other impacts. The paper presents a promising new approach…”
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How planners deal with uncomfortable knowledge: The dubious ethics of the American Planning Association by Flyvbjerg, Bent

“…► A study of moral hypocrisy with the American Planning Association (APA). ► “APA seriously breached its own ethics”, according to JAPA editor. ► APA is found…”
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Correction to: How to solve big problems: bespoke versus platform strategies

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