Search Results - "Fernald, John G."

Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession by Fernald, John G.

“…US labor and total-factor productivity growth slowed prior to the Great Recession. The timing rules out explanations that focus on disruptions during or since…”
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The future of US economic growth by Fernald, John G, Jones, Charles I

“…Modern growth theory suggests that more than three-quarters of growth since 1950 reflects rising educational attainment and research intensity. As these…”
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Does the United States Have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem? by BYRNE, DAVID M., FERNALD, JOHN G., REINSDORF, MARSHALL B.

“…After 2004, measured growth in labor productivity and total factor productivity slowed. We find little evidence that this slowdown arises from growing…”
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Are Technology Improvements Contractionary? by Basu, Susanto, Fernald, John G., Kimball, Miles S.

“…Yes. We construct a measure of aggregate technology change, controlling for aggregation effects, varying utilization of capital and labor, nonconstant returns,…”
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Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications by Basu, Susanto, Fernald, John G.

“…A typical (roughly) two‐digit industry in the United States appears to have constant or slightly decreasing returns to scale. Three puzzles emerge, however…”
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Monetary policy effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR model by Fernald, John G., Spiegel, Mark M., Swanson, Eric T.

“…We use a broad set of Chinese economic indicators and a dynamic factor model framework to estimate Chinese economic activity and inflation as latent variables…”
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The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 by FERNALD, JOHN G., HALL, ROBERT E., STOCK, JAMES H., WATSON, MARK W.

“…U.S. output has expanded only slowly since the recession trough in 2009, even though the unemployment rate has essentially returned to a precrisis, normal…”
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Reprint: Is China fudging its GDP figures? Evidence from trading partner data by Fernald, John G., Hsu, Eric, Spiegel, Mark M.

“…We use Chinese imports, measured as reported exports of trading partners, as a benchmark to gauge the accuracy of alternative Chinese indicators (including…”
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Is China fudging its GDP figures? Evidence from trading partner data by Fernald, John G., Hsu, Eric, Spiegel, Mark M.

“…We use Chinese imports, measured as reported exports of trading partners, as a benchmark to gauge the accuracy of alternative Chinese indicators (including…”
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Trend breaks, long-run restrictions, and contractionary technology improvements by Fernald, John G.

“…Structural vector autoregressions with long-run restrictions are extraordinarily sensitive to low-frequency correlations. Recent literature finds that the…”
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Roads to Prosperity? Assessing the Link between Public Capital and Productivity by Fernald, John G.

“…Does the positive correlation between infrastructure and productivity reflect causation? If so, in which direction? I find that when growth in roads (the…”
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Why Has the Cyclicality of Productivity Changed? What Does It Mean? by Fernald, John G, Wang, J. Christina

“…US labor and total factor productivity have historically been procyclical-rising in booms and falling in recessions. After the mid-1980s, however, total factor…”
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Paradox resolved? A review of the Rise and Fall of American Growth, by Robert J. Gordon by Fernald, John G.

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The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth, or Does Information Technology Explain Why Productivity Accelerated in the United States but Not in the United Kingdom? by Basu, Susanto, Fernald, John G., Oulton, Nicholas, Srinivasan, Sylaja

“…Solow's paradox has disappeared in the United States but remains alive and well in the United Kingdom. In particular, the United Kingdom experienced an…”
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Aggregate productivity and aggregate technology by Basu, Susanto, Fernald, John G.

“…Aggregate productivity and aggregate technology are meaningful but distinct concepts. We show that a slightly modified Solow productivity residual measures…”
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LABOUR MARKETS IN THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY by Daly, Mary C., Fernald, John G., Jordà, Òscar, Nechio, Fernanda

“…This note examines labour market performance across countries through the lens of Okun's Law. We find that after the 1970s but prior to the global financial…”
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Are apparent productive spillovers a figment of specification error? by Basu, Susanto, Fernald, John G.

“…Using data on gross output for two-digit manufacturing industries, we find that an increase in the output of one manufacturing sector has little or no…”
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Productivity growth in the 1990s: technology, utilization, or adjustment? by Basu, Susanto, Fernald, John, Shapiro, Matthew D

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What do we know (and not know) about potential output? by Basu, Susanto, Fernald, John G

“…Potential output is an important concept in economics. Policymakers often use a one-sector neoclassical model to think about long-run growth, and they often…”
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Is there an easy cure for low growth? by Fernald, John

“…The U.S. economy faces sizeable headwinds to keeping GDP growth even at 2% over the next decade. Demographics imply that labor force growth will be much slower…”
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