Climate Change, Forest Fires, and Territorial Dynamics in the Amazon Rainforest: An Integrated Analysis for Mitigation Strategies

Recent times have witnessed wildfires causing harm to both ecological communities and urban–rural regions, underscoring the necessity to comprehend wildfire triggers and assess measures for mitigation. This research hones in on Cartagena del Chairá, diving into the interplay between meteorological c...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	ISPRS international journal of geo-information Vol. 12; no. 10; p. 436
Main Authors:	Celis, Nathalia, Casallas, Alejandro, Lopez-Barrera, Ellie Anne, Felician, Martina, De Marchi, Massimo, Pappalardo, Salvatore E.
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Basel MDPI AG 01-10-2023
Subjects:	Biodiversity Climate change Colombia Deforestation Ecological effects Economic analysis Environmental economics Forest & brush fires Forest fires GDP Global temperature changes Gross Domestic Product High temperature Hones Human influences Humidity Land cover land cover analysis Machine learning meteorology Mitigation mitigation strategies Precipitation Precipitation (Meteorology) Rain forests Rainforests Regions Rural areas Sensitivity analysis socio-economic drivers Socioeconomic aspects Socioeconomic factors Synergism Temperature Vegetation Wildfires Wind speed Winds Colombia Amazon Basin
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Summary:	Recent times have witnessed wildfires causing harm to both ecological communities and urban–rural regions, underscoring the necessity to comprehend wildfire triggers and assess measures for mitigation. This research hones in on Cartagena del Chairá, diving into the interplay between meteorological conditions and land cover/use that cultivates a conducive environment for wildfires. Meteorologically, the prevalence of wildfires is concentrated during boreal winter, characterized by warm and dry air, strong winds, and negligible precipitation. Additionally, wildfires gravitate toward river-adjacent locales housing agriculture-linked shrubs, notably in the northern part of the zone, where a confluence of land attributes and meteorological factors synergize to promote fire incidents. Employing climate scenarios, we deduced that elevated temperature and reduced humidity augment wildfire susceptibility, while wind speed and precipitation discourage their propagation across most scenarios. The trajectory toward a warmer climate could instigate fire-friendly conditions in boreal summer, indicating the potential for year-round fire susceptibility. Subsequently, via machine-learning-driven sensitivity analysis, we discerned that among the scrutinized socio-economic variables, GINI, low educational attainment, and displacement by armed groups wield the most substantial influence on wildfire occurrence. Ultimately, these findings converge to shape proposed wildfire mitigation strategies that amalgamate existing practices with enhancements or supplementary approaches.
ISSN:	2220-9964 2220-9964
DOI:	10.3390/ijgi12100436