Long-term trajectories of human civilization

Purpose This paper aims to formalize long-term trajectories of human civilization as a scientific and ethical field of study. The long-term trajectory of human civilization can be defined as the path that human civilization takes during the entire future time period in which human civilization could...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Foresight (Cambridge) Vol. 21; no. 1; pp. 53 - 83
Main Authors:	Baum, Seth D, Armstrong, Stuart, Ekenstedt, Timoteus, Häggström, Olle, Hanson, Robin, Kuhlemann, Karin, Maas, Matthijs M, Miller, James D, Salmela, Markus, Sandberg, Anders, Sotala, Kaj, Torres, Phil, Turchin, Alexey, Yampolskiy, Roman V
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Bradford Emerald Publishing Limited 11-03-2019 Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Subjects:	Astrobiology Catastrophic events Celestial bodies Civilization Demography Economics Ethics Human civilization Long-term trajectories Natural resources Political science Population Probability distribution Quality of life Studies Sustainability Trajectories Transformations Long-term trajectories Human civilization
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Summary:	Purpose This paper aims to formalize long-term trajectories of human civilization as a scientific and ethical field of study. The long-term trajectory of human civilization can be defined as the path that human civilization takes during the entire future time period in which human civilization could continue to exist. Design/methodology/approach This paper focuses on four types of trajectories: status quo trajectories, in which human civilization persists in a state broadly similar to its current state into the distant future; catastrophe trajectories, in which one or more events cause significant harm to human civilization; technological transformation trajectories, in which radical technological breakthroughs put human civilization on a fundamentally different course; and astronomical trajectories, in which human civilization expands beyond its home planet and into the accessible portions of the cosmos. Findings Status quo trajectories appear unlikely to persist into the distant future, especially in light of long-term astronomical processes. Several catastrophe, technological transformation and astronomical trajectories appear possible. Originality/value Some current actions may be able to affect the long-term trajectory. Whether these actions should be pursued depends on a mix of empirical and ethical factors. For some ethical frameworks, these actions may be especially important to pursue.
ISSN:	1463-6689 1465-9832 1465-9832
DOI:	10.1108/FS-04-2018-0037