Medical and entomological malarial interventions, a comparison and synergy of two control measures using a Ross/Macdonald model variant and openmalaria simulation
•An adaptation of the classical Ross–Macdonald model for vector disease transmission to incorporate time-dependent medical and entomological control measures.•Modeling both mass drug administration and indoor residual spraying campaigns, the synchronous deployment of both yields a synergy where the...
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| Published in: | Mathematical biosciences Vol. 300; pp. 187 - 200 |
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| Main Authors: | , , |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
United States
Elsevier Inc
01-06-2018
Elsevier Science Ltd American Elsevier |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Get full text |
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| Summary: | •An adaptation of the classical Ross–Macdonald model for vector disease transmission to incorporate time-dependent medical and entomological control measures.•Modeling both mass drug administration and indoor residual spraying campaigns, the synchronous deployment of both yields a synergy where the impact of a joint intervention exceeds that of isolated campaigns.•Openmalaria simulations, separately run, indicate comparable intervention impacts to the Ross/Macdonald model variant.•The vector reservoir of parasitemia is found to be labile, and this dictates the impacts of the medical and entomological interventions.•A scaling-law level of analysis is performed that estimates the rebound of infections in a community after interventions expire, and not only do higher transmission environments bounce back to prevalent infections faster, communities with stronger interventions are shown to have a slower relapse to parasitemia.
Using an established Ross/Macdonald model variant for mosquito-born parasite transmission, we extend the formalism to simply incorporate time-dependent control measures. In particular, two interventions are considered, mass drug administration (MDA) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), whose individual intensities during their respective campaigns are set to the same intervention-reduced reproductive number R0. The impacts of these interventions, measured as each campaign’s ability over time to reduce infections in a community, are found based on the transmission setting, coverage, and their associated durations. These impacts are compared for both interventions and their joint deployment. Synchronous campaigns of IRS deployed with MDA have a cooperative, synergistic effect whose impact exceeds that when the campaigns are deployed in isolation. Simulations with openmalaria, with its more complex model of transmission, are separately performed and show a similar impact enhancement with these interventions. A new, associated analysis yields simple scaling relationships that estimate the dynamical resurgence time, post-intervention, to infection proliferation in a community. |
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| Bibliography: | ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 |
| ISSN: | 0025-5564 1879-3134 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.mbs.2018.04.005 |