When should lockdown be implemented? Devising cost-effective strategies for managing epidemics amid vaccine uncertainty
During an infectious disease outbreak, public health policy makers are tasked with strategically implementing interventions whilst balancing competing objectives. To provide a quantitative framework that can be used to guide these decisions, it is helpful to devise a clear and specific objective fun...
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| Published in: | PLoS computational biology Vol. 20; no. 7; p. e1012010 |
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
United States
Public Library of Science
18-07-2024
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Get full text |
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| Summary: | During an infectious disease outbreak, public health policy makers are tasked with strategically implementing interventions whilst balancing competing objectives. To provide a quantitative framework that can be used to guide these decisions, it is helpful to devise a clear and specific objective function that can be evaluated to determine the optimal outbreak response. In this study, we have developed a mathematical modelling framework representing outbreaks of a novel emerging pathogen for which non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are imposed or removed based on thresholds for hospital occupancy. These thresholds are set at different levels to define four unique strategies for disease control. We illustrate that the optimal intervention strategy is contingent on the choice of objective function. Specifically, the optimal strategy depends on the extent to which policy makers prioritise reducing health costs due to infection over the costs associated with maintaining interventions. Motivated by the scenario early in the COVID-19 pandemic, we incorporate the development of a vaccine into our modelling framework and demonstrate that a policy maker's belief about when a vaccine will become available in future, and its eventual coverage (and/or effectiveness), affects the optimal strategy to adopt early in the outbreak. Furthermore, we show how uncertainty in these quantities can be accounted for when deciding which interventions to introduce. This research highlights the benefits of policy makers being explicit about the precise objectives of introducing interventions. |
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| Bibliography: | new_version ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. |
| ISSN: | 1553-7358 1553-734X 1553-7358 |
| DOI: | 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012010 |