Search Results - "Doblas‐Reyes, F. J."

ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions-Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs by Weisheimer, A., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Palmer, T. N., Alessandri, A., Arribas, A., Déqué, M., Keenlyside, N., MacVean, M., Navarra, A., Rogel, P.

“…A new 46‐year hindcast dataset for seasonal‐to‐annual ensemble predictions has been created using a multi‐model ensemble of 5 state‐of‐the‐art coupled…”
Get full text

Contribution of land surface initialization to subseasonal forecast skill: First results from a multi-model experiment by Koster, R. D., Mahanama, S. P. P., Yamada, T. J., Balsamo, Gianpaolo, Berg, A. A., Boisserie, M., Dirmeyer, P. A., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Drewitt, G., Gordon, C. T., Guo, Z., Jeong, J.-H., Lawrence, D. M., Lee, W.-S., Li, Z., Luo, L., Malyshev, S., Merryfield, W. J., Seneviratne, S. I., Stanelle, T., van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., Vitart, F., Wood, E. F.

“…The second phase of the Global Land‐Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE‐2) is aimed at quantifying, with a suite of long‐range forecast systems, the degree…”
Get full text

On the assessment of near-surface global temperature and North Atlantic multi-decadal variability in the ENSEMBLES decadal hindcast by García-Serrano, J., Doblas-Reyes, F. J.

“…The ENSEMBLES multi-model and perturbed-parameter decadal re-forecasts are used to assess multi-year forecast quality for global-mean surface air temperature…”
Get full text

Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability by Ardilouze, Constantin, Batté, L., Bunzel, F., Decremer, D., Déqué, M., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Douville, H., Fereday, D., Guemas, V., MacLachlan, C., Müller, W., Prodhomme, C.

“…Land surface initial conditions have been recognized as a potential source of predictability in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast systems, at least for…”
Get full text

Reliability of decadal predictions by Corti, S., Weisheimer, A., Palmer, T. N., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Magnusson, L.

“…The reliability of multi‐year predictions of climate is assessed using probabilistic Attributes Diagrams for near‐surface air temperature and sea surface…”
Get full text

Impact of snow initialization on sub-seasonal forecasts by Orsolini, Y. J., Senan, R., Balsamo, G., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Vitart, F., Weisheimer, A., Carrasco, A., Benestad, R. E.

“…The influence of the snowpack on wintertime atmospheric teleconnections has received renewed attention in recent years, partially for its potential impact on…”
Get full text

Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles by Thomson, M.C, Doblas-Reyes, F.J, Mason, S.J, Hagedorn, R, Connor, S.J, Phindela, T, Morse, A.P, Palmer, T.N

“…The control of epidemic malaria is a priority for the international health community and specific targets for the early detection and effective control of…”
Get full text

Identifying the causes of the poor decadal climate prediction skill over the North Pacific by Guemas, V., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Lienert, F., Soufflet, Y., Du, H.

“…While the North Pacific region has a strong influence on North American and Asian climate, it is also the area with the worst performance in several…”
Get full text

Reliability of regional climate model trends by van Oldenborgh, G J, Doblas Reyes, F J, Drijfhout, S S, Hawkins, E

“…A necessary condition for a good probabilistic forecast is that the forecast system is shown to be reliable: forecast probabilities should equal observed…”
Get full text

The Indian Ocean: The Region of Highest Skill Worldwide in Decadal Climate Prediction by Guemas, Virginie, Corti, Susanna, García-Serrano, J., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Balmaseda, Magdalena, Magnusson, Linus

“…The Indian Ocean stands out as the region where the state-of-the-art decadal climate predictions of sea surface temperature (SST) perform the best worldwide…”
Get full text

Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical ensemble forecasts by Doblas‐Reyes, F. J., Weisheimer, A., Déqué, M., Keenlyside, N., McVean, M., Murphy, J. M., Rogel, P., Smith, D., Palmer, T. N.

“…The relative merits of three forecast systems addressing the impact of model uncertainty on seasonal/annual forecasts are described. One system consists of a…”
Get full text

Sources of skill in near-term climate prediction: generating initial conditions by Carrassi, A., Guemas, V., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Volpi, D., Asif, M.

“…This study investigates the role of different areas of the ocean in driving the climate variability. The impact of both global and regional ocean nudging on…”
Get full text

Understanding Atlantic multi-decadal variability prediction skill by García-Serrano, J., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Coelho, C. A. S.

“…Initialized and uninitialized decadal retrospective forecasts (re‐forecasts) are used to assess the key regions providing multi‐year prediction skill of the…”
Get full text

Bias adjustment and ensemble recalibration methods for seasonal forecasting: a comprehensive intercomparison using the C3S dataset by Manzanas, R., Gutiérrez, J. M., Bhend, J., Hemri, S., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Torralba, V., Penabad, E., Brookshaw, A.

“…This work presents a comprehensive intercomparison of different alternatives for the calibration of seasonal forecasts, ranging from simple bias adjustment…”
Get full text

Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction by Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Andreu-Burillo, I., Chikamoto, Y., García-Serrano, J., Guemas, V., Kimoto, M., Mochizuki, T., Rodrigues, L. R. L., van Oldenborgh, G. J.

“…Climate models are seen by many to be unverifiable. However, near-term climate predictions up to 10 years into the future carried out recently with these…”
Get full text

Impact of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in seasonal ensemble forecasts by Doblas‐Reyes, F. J., Hagedorn, R., Palmer, T. N., Morcrette, J.‐J.

“…A set of 44‐year seasonal ensemble coupled model forecasts performed with annually updated greenhouse gas concentrations is compared to a standard seasonal…”
Get full text

DEVELOPMENT OF A EUROPEAN MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEM FOR SEASONAL-TO-INTERANNUAL PREDICTION (DEMETER) by Palmer, T. N., Alessandri, A., Andersen, U., Cantelaube, P., Davey, M., Délécluse, P., Déqué, M., Díez, E., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Feddersen, H., Graham, R., Gualdi, S., Guérémy, J.-F., Hagedorn, R., Hoshen, M., Keenlyside, N., Latif, M., Lazar, A., Maisonnave, E., Marletto, V., Morse, A. P., Orfila, B., Rogel, P., Terres, J.-M., Thomson, M. C.

“…A multi-model ensemble-based system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction has been developed in a joint European project known as DEMETER (Development of a…”
Get full text

Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles by Weisheimer, Antje, Palmer, T. N., Doblas‐Reyes, F. J.

“…The probabilistic skill of ensemble forecasts for the first month and the first season of the forecasts is assessed, where model uncertainty is represented by…”
Get full text

Robust skill of decadal climate predictions by Smith, D. M., Eade, R., Scaife, A. A., Caron, L.-P., Danabasoglu, G., DelSole, T. M., Delworth, T., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Dunstone, N. J., Hermanson, L., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Merryfield, W. J., Mochizuki, T., Müller, W. A., Pohlmann, H., Yeager, S., Yang, X.

“…There is a growing need for skilful predictions of climate up to a decade ahead. Decadal climate predictions show high skill for surface temperature, but…”
Get full text

Influence of the Eurasian snow on the negative North Atlantic Oscillation in subseasonal forecasts of the cold winter 2009/2010 by Orsolini, Y. J., Senan, R., Vitart, F., Balsamo, G., Weisheimer, A., Doblas-Reyes, F. J.

“…The winter 2009/2010 was remarkably cold and snowy over North America and across Eurasia, from Europe to the Far East, coinciding with a pronounced negative…”
Get full text