Colorectal Cancer Mortality in Brazil: Predictions Until the Year 2025 and Cancer Control Implications

Colorectal Cancer Mortality in Brazil: Predictions Until the Year 2025 and Cancer Control Implications

BACKGROUND:Although data exist on the number of deaths by colorectal cancer in Brazil, there is no information detailed by geographic regions and age groups regarding the future impact of this disease. OBJECTIVE:The purpose of this study was to carry out predictions for colorectal cancer mortality i...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Diseases of the colon & rectum Vol. 57; no. 9; pp. 1082 - 1089
Main Authors: Souza, Dyego L B, Jerez-Roig, Javier, Cabral, Francisco J, de Lima, José Roberto F, Rutalira, Michael K, Costa, Juan Adrizio G
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Hagerstown, MDc The American Society of Colon and Rectal Surgeons 01-09-2014
Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
Subjects:
Adult
Age Factors
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Biological and medical sciences
Brazil - epidemiology
Colorectal Neoplasms - mortality
Female
Forecasting
Gastroenterology. Liver. Pancreas. Abdomen
Humans
Male
Medical sciences
Middle Aged
Multiple tumors. Solid tumors. Tumors in childhood (general aspects)
Sex Factors
Stomach. Duodenum. Small intestine. Colon. Rectum. Anus
Tumors
South America
Brazil
America
Rectal disease
Prognosis
Mortality
Colorectal cancer
Malignant tumor
Colorectal neoplasms
Epidemiology
Colonic disease
Gastroenterology
Predictions
Brazil
Digestive diseases
Intestinal disease
Trends
Predictive factor
Cancer
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:BACKGROUND:Although data exist on the number of deaths by colorectal cancer in Brazil, there is no information detailed by geographic regions and age groups regarding the future impact of this disease. OBJECTIVE:The purpose of this study was to carry out predictions for colorectal cancer mortality in Brazil and its geographic regions until the year 2025. DESIGN:This was an ecological study. SETTINGS:The study was conducted in the geographic regions of Brazil. PATIENTS:Data were obtained from the Brazilian Health Ministry and from population-based data of the Brazilian Statistics and Geography Institute. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:The main outcome measures were the predictions of the number of deaths and mortality rates for 2011–2025 based on the mortality incidence of colorectal cancer during 1996–2010. RESULTS:Significant increases were verified in Brazilian rates between 1996 and 2006, followed by stable rates until 2010. For men, predictions indicate increasing rates both at a national level and by geographic regions, except for the South region (where a decrease is expected). In women, increasing rates are expected for the overall country and for the North, Northeast, and Central West regions, whereas decreasing rates are expected for the Southeast and South regions. At a national level, the predicted increase in deaths by colorectal cancer is 75.8% in men and 67.5% in women55.8% and 60.6% can be attributed to population changes and 20.0% and 7.0% because of risk increases. LIMITATIONS:It is highlighted that the observational period for projections is short, at 15 years. CONCLUSIONS:Increasing mortality rates for colorectal cancer are expected in Brazil until the year 2025, mostly because of the aging process of the population. The results presented herein show that the disease burden will be higher in the North, Northeast, and Central West regions of the country, which also correspond with the least developed regions.
Bibliography:ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-2
content type line 23
ISSN:0012-3706
1530-0358
DOI:10.1097/DCR.0000000000000186