Probabilistic risk assessment for evacuees in building fires

Probabilistic risk assessment for evacuees in building fires

A probabilistic risk assessment method for evacuees in building fires is presented with consideration of some deterministic and stochastic factors. The time-dependent event tree technique is used to analyze probable fire scenarios based on operational reliability of fire protection systems. For a fi...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Building and environment Vol. 42; no. 3; pp. 1283 - 1290
Main Authors: Chu, G.Q., Chen, T., Sun, Z.H., Sun, J.H.
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Oxford Elsevier Ltd 01-03-2007
Elsevier
Subjects:
Applied sciences
Building fire
Building technical equipments
Buildings
Buildings. Public works
Computation methods. Tables. Charts
Detection. Firefighting. Smoke control. Evacuation
Evacuation
Event tree
Exact sciences and technology
Expected risk to life
Fire protection
Fire safety. Legislation
Risk assessment
Structural analysis. Stresses
Building fire
Event tree
Risk assessment
Evacuation
Expected risk to life
Script
Tree(graph)
Buildings
Event graph
Probability
Risk analysis
Case study
Probabilistic assessment
Person evacuation
Expectation
Fire safety
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Description
Summary:A probabilistic risk assessment method for evacuees in building fires is presented with consideration of some deterministic and stochastic factors. The time-dependent event tree technique is used to analyze probable fire scenarios based on operational reliability of fire protection systems. For a fire scenario, the time to untenable conditions is characterized by probability distribution with consideration of some uncertainties of design fire. Moreover, occupant pre-movement time, one of the most important proportions of evacuation time, is characterized by normal distribution to express its uncertainty. Based on calculated results of ASET and RSET for every fire scenarios, the expected number of casualties is obtained when untenable conditions occur. Moreover, according to some fire statistical data, expected risk to life (ERL) is calculated to express the risk severity. Finally, a case study for a supermarket building is presented to express the risk assessment method in detail.
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ISSN:0360-1323
1873-684X
DOI:10.1016/j.buildenv.2005.12.002