Search Results - "Charles F Manski"

Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise by Manski, Charles F.

“…Economists commonly suppose that persons have probabilistic expectations for uncertain events, yet empirical research measuring expectations was long rare. The…”
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ECONOMETRICS FOR DECISION MAKING: BUILDING FOUNDATIONS SKETCHED BY HAAVELMO AND WALD by Manski, Charles F.

“…Haavelmo (1944) proposed a probabilistic structure for econometric modeling, aiming to make econometrics useful for decision making. His fundamental…”
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Communicating uncertainty in policy analysis by Manski, Charles F.

“…The term “policy analysis” describes scientific evaluations of the impacts of past public policies and predictions of the outcomes of potential future…”
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Sufficient trial size to inform clinical practice by Manski, Charles F., Tetenov, Aleksey

“…Medical research has evolved conventions for choosing sample size in randomized clinical trials that rest on the theory of hypothesis testing. Bayesian…”
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Tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment under uncertainty by Cassidy, Rachel, Manski, Charles F.

“…In 2017, 1.6 million people worldwide died from tuberculosis (TB). A new TB diagnostic test—Xpert MTB/RIF from Cepheid—was endorsed by the World Health…”
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Trial Size for Near-Optimal Choice Between Surveillance and Aggressive Treatment: Reconsidering MSLT-II by Manski, Charles F., Tetenov, Aleksey

“…A convention in designing randomized clinical trials has been to choose sample sizes that yield specified statistical power when testing hypotheses about…”
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More Data or Better Data? A Statistical Decision Problem by DOMINITZ, JEFF, MANSKI, CHARLES F.

“…When designing data collection, crucial questions arise regarding how much data to collect and how much effort to expend to enhance the quality of the…”
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Diagnostic testing and treatment under ambiguity: Using decision analysis to inform clinical practice by Manski, Charles F.

“…Partial knowledge of patient health status and treatment response is a pervasive concern in medical decision making. Clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) make…”
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Economic Analysis of Social Interactions by Manski, Charles F.

“…Economics is broadening its scope from analysis of markets to study of general social interactions. Developments in game theory, the economics of the family,…”
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Confidence Intervals for Partially Identified Parameters by Imbens, Guido W., Manski, Charles F.

“…Recently a growing body of research has studied inference in settings where parameters of interest are partially identified. In many cases the parameter is…”
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Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters by Engelberg, Joseph, Manski, Charles F., Williams, Jared

“…We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to compare point predictions of gross domestic product (GDP) growth and inflation with the…”
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Increasing prevalence of cirrhosis among insured adults in the United States, 2012-2018 by Ladner, Daniela P, Gmeiner, Michael, Hasjim, Bima J, Mazumder, Nikhilesh, Kang, Raymond, Parker, Emily, Stephen, John, Polineni, Praneet, Chorniy, Anna, Zhao, Lihui, VanWagner, Lisa B, Ackermann, Ronald T, Manski, Charles F

“…Liver cirrhosis is a chronic disease that is known as a "silent killer" and its true prevalence is difficult to describe. It is imperative to accurately…”
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Vaccination with partial knowledge of external effectiveness by Manski, Charles F

“…Economists studying public policy have generally assumed that the relevant planner knows how policy affects population behavior. Planners typically do not…”
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Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets by Manski, Charles F.

“…Prediction markets are futures markets in which prices are used to predict future events. I present the first formal analysis of price determination supposing…”
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Estimating the COVID-19 infection rate: Anatomy of an inference problem by Manski, Charles F., Molinari, Francesca

“…As a consequence of missing data on tests for infection and imperfect accuracy of tests, reported rates of cumulative population infection by the SARS CoV-2…”
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Candidate preferences and expectations of election outcomes by Delavande, Adeline, Manski, Charles F

“…Analysis of data from the American Life Panel shows that in the presidential election of 2008 and in multiple statewide elections in 2010, citizens exhibited…”
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THE 2009 LAWRENCE R. KLEIN LECTURE: DIVERSIFIED TREATMENT UNDER AMBIGUITY by Manski, Charles F.

“…This article develops a broad theme about treatment under ambiguity through study of a particular decision criterion. The broad theme is that a planner may…”
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Using elicited choice probabilities in hypothetical elections to study decisions to vote by Delavande, Adeline, Manski, Charles F.

“…This paper demonstrates the feasibility and usefulness of survey research asking respondents to report voting probabilities in hypothetical election scenarios…”
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USING ELICITED CHOICE PROBABILITIES TO ESTIMATE RANDOM UTILITY MODELS: PREFERENCES FOR ELECTRICITY RELIABILITY by Blass, Asher A., Lach, Saul, Manski, Charles F.

“…When choice data are not available, researchers studying preferences sometimes ask respondents to state the actions they would choose in choice scenarios. Data…”
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Measuring consumer uncertainty about future inflation by De Bruin, Wändi Bruine, Manski, Charles F., Topa, Giorgio, van der Klaauw, Wilbert

“…We introduce a survey-based measure of uncertainty about future inflation, asking consumers for density forecasts across inflation outcomes. Consumers are…”
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