Can assisted reproductive technologies help to offset population ageing? An assessment of the demographic and economic impact of ART in Denmark and UK

Governments worldwide are searching for ways to cope with ageing populations as the demographic shift towards fewer and later births takes hold. The potential contribution of assisted reproductive technologies (ART) to increasing fertility rates has not yet been explored. This paper describes a prel...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Human reproduction (Oxford) Vol. 22; no. 9; pp. 2471 - 2475
Main Authors:	Hoorens, S., Gallo, F., Cave, J.A.K., Grant, J.C.
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Oxford Oxford University Press 01-09-2007
Subjects:	Adult Age Distribution Aging Biological and medical sciences Cost-Benefit Analysis demographic ageing Demography Denmark Family Planning Policy Female Gynecology. Andrology. Obstetrics Humans infertility Medical sciences Middle Aged Models, Theoretical Population population policy Reproductive Techniques, Assisted - economics total fertility rate United Kingdom Denmark Europe population policy demographic ageing ART infertility total fertility rate Art Senescence Ageing Assisted procreation Sterility Vertebrata Mammalia Fertility Technology Economic impact Public health
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Summary:	Governments worldwide are searching for ways to cope with ageing populations as the demographic shift towards fewer and later births takes hold. The potential contribution of assisted reproductive technologies (ART) to increasing fertility rates has not yet been explored. This paper describes a preliminary study into the impact ART policies might have on population ageing. A deterministic model is developed to quantify the effects of ART policies on total fertility rate (TFR), and tested using data from the UK and Denmark. The population structure for 2050 is modelled to translate fertility rates into time-dependent population dynamics, and the costs of potential ART policies are investigated. If access to ART in the UK were increased to the level of Denmark, the TFR would increase by 0.04, from 1.64 to 1.68. The cumulative effect on the population structure would be a 1.7% decrease in old-age dependency ratio in 2050. Although the empirical models do not include behavioural components, the results demonstrate that ART does have potential to contribute to TFR and influence population structure, and that the direct costs associated with adopting ART as a population policy are comparable with those of existing policies commonly used by governments to influence fertility.
Bibliography:	ArticleID:dem181 istex:E229A6AF2400AC9164E086E5BE313CC514867EA2 All authors work for RAND Europe, an independent, not-for-profit, research institution that helps improve policy and decision-making through objective research and analysis. RAND Europe, based in Cambridge, UK, is part of the globally operating think tank RAND Corporation. The authors have experience and expertise in policy analysis, population studies, health policy and economics. ark:/67375/HXZ-MGTK6W61-2 ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23
ISSN:	0268-1161 1460-2350
DOI:	10.1093/humrep/dem181