Timing of influenza epidemics and vaccines in the American tropics, 2002–2008, 2011–2014

Background Influenza‐associated illness results in increased morbidity and mortality in the Americas. These effects can be mitigated with an appropriately chosen and timed influenza vaccination campaign. To provide guidance in choosing the most suitable vaccine formulation and timing of administrati...

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Published in:	Influenza and other respiratory viruses Vol. 10; no. 3; pp. 170 - 175
Main Authors:	Durand, Lizette Olga, Cheng, Po‐Yung, Palekar, Rakhee, Clara, Wilfrido, Jara, Jorge, Cerpa, Mauricio, El Omeiri, Nathalie, Ropero‐Alvarez, Alba Maria, Ramirez, Juliana Barbosa, Araya, Jenny Lara, Acosta, Belsy, Bruno, Alfredo, Calderon de Lozano, Celina, Castillo Signor, Leticia del Carmen, Matute, Maria Luisa, Jackson‐Betty, Sandra, Mung, Kam Suan, Díaz‐Quiñonez, José Alberto, López‐Martinez, Irma, Balmaseda, Angel, Arévalo, Brechla Morneo, Vazquez, Cynthia, Gutierrez, Victoria, Garten, Rebecca, Widdowson, Marc‐Alain, Azziz‐Baumgartner, Eduardo
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	England John Wiley & Sons, Inc 01-05-2016 John Wiley and Sons Inc
Subjects:	Analysis Binomial distribution Brazil - epidemiology Disease control Epidemics Epidemiological Monitoring Health aspects Health surveillance Humans Immunization Influenza Influenza vaccines Influenza Vaccines - chemistry Influenza, Human - epidemiology Influenza, Human - prevention & control Influenza, Human - virology Medical laboratories Morbidity Mortality Nicaragua - epidemiology Original Pandemics Pandemics - prevention & control Pandemics - statistics & numerical data Peru - epidemiology Population Surveillance Public health Regression analysis Regression models Respiratory diseases Seasons Southern Hemisphere surveillence Time Factors Tropical Climate Tropical environments United States - epidemiology Vaccination vaccine Vaccines Viruses Ecuador Southern Hemisphere Northern Hemisphere Brazil Guatemala Mexico Jamaica Bolivia Peru surveillence vaccine Influenza
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Summary:	Background Influenza‐associated illness results in increased morbidity and mortality in the Americas. These effects can be mitigated with an appropriately chosen and timed influenza vaccination campaign. To provide guidance in choosing the most suitable vaccine formulation and timing of administration, it is necessary to understand the timing of influenza seasonal epidemics. Objectives Our main objective was to determine whether influenza occurs in seasonal patterns in the American tropics and when these patterns occurred. Methods Publicly available, monthly seasonal influenza data from the Pan American Health Organization and WHO, from countries in the American tropics, were obtained during 2002–2008 and 2011–2014 (excluding unseasonal pandemic activity during 2009–2010). For each country, we calculated the monthly proportion of samples that tested positive for influenza. We applied the monthly proportion data to a logistic regression model for each country. Results We analyzed 2002–2008 and 2011–2014 influenza surveillance data from the American tropics and identified 13 (81%) of 16 countries with influenza epidemics that, on average, started during May and lasted 4 months. Conclusions The majority of countries in the American tropics have seasonal epidemics that start in May. Officials in these countries should consider the impact of vaccinating persons during April with the Southern Hemisphere formulation.
Bibliography:	ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 Dr. Durand is an epidemiologist for the Division of Population Health. She completed the Epidemic Intelligence Service Fellowship with the Influenza Division of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Her research interests include influenza and other infectious diseases.
ISSN:	1750-2640 1750-2659
DOI:	10.1111/irv.12371